Wheat limped into Thursday’s finish with broad-based weakness as selling lingered despite stronger weekly export interest. December ’25 CBOT wheat settled at $5.24¼/bu, off 4 cents, with Kansas City contracts down 5–6¼ cents and Minneapolis spring wheat lower by 2–3 cents. The tone reflected a mix of profit-taking and competitive global offers, even as U.S. wheat export sales reached a three-week high and outpaced last year’s same-week pace by more than half, hinting at improving demand into Q4.

Corn extended midweek softness. December ’25 closed $4.23¾/bu, down 3 cents, after traders digested a solid U.S. export sales print and a fresh daily sale to Mexico that couldn’t fully offset macro headwinds and harvest pressure. Cash indications eased again, while forward attention stayed on logistics and the evolving Brazil balance sheet that will shape competition into calendar 2026.

Soybeans finished weaker for a second session. November ’25 ended at $10.37½/bu, down 6¼ cents, as product markets slipped and South American supply narratives firmed. Weekly U.S. soybean sales improved versus last week but remained below last year’s pace, and the complex stayed sensitive to Brazil’s acreage expansion and early-season weather cadence.

U.S. export sales set the early tone. Weekly bookings showed wheat at 377,459 MT (a three-week high and 53% above the same week last year), corn at 1.23 MMT for 2025/26 with Mexico, South Korea, and Japan the standouts, and soybeans at 923,018 MT—up sharply from last week but still trailing last year. The sales mix underscored resilient buying interest for U.S. corn and improving traction for wheat, even as soybean demand waits on bigger takers to re-engage.

A fresh daily flash added to corn’s ledger. USDA reported a 110,000 MT sale of U.S. corn to Mexico for 2025/26, reinforcing North American demand channels and helping to cushion futures into the close despite broader commodity softness.

Brazil’s supply math is shifting again. CONAB pegged 2025/26 soybean production at 177.67 MMT, up year on year on expanded area to 49.08 Mha, while trimming the 2025/26 corn crop to 138.28 MMT even as corn acreage rises to 22.63 Mha. The combination points to abundant soy availability and a slightly tighter corn backdrop than last year, sharpening FOB competition and influencing crush and ethanol trajectories into late 2025.

U.S. weather remains a two-track story for harvest. Heat lingers across parts of the Midwest, but a slow-moving system is spreading showers eastward through the weekend, a plus for drought relief and Mississippi River levels yet a drag on soybean cutting and late corn dry-down. In the Plains, recent rains aid winter-wheat establishment, while the Northern Plains contend with pockets that are now too wet for timely fieldwork.

South American fieldwork is edging forward. Spring planting is underway across southern Brazil on favorable soil moisture, but Mato Grosso still awaits a consistent wet-season onset; producers may hold soy planting until rains regularize in October. Argentina enters planting with supportive moisture for corn and sunflower, though a cold push early next week could keep some growers patient before accelerating seeders.

Palm and vegoil signals leaned softer. Malaysian palm oil futures slipped 41 ringgit overnight, while Chinese ag futures showed pressure across soyoil and palm contracts. The backdrop narrowed product spreads and weighed on soybean market sentiment as traders balanced softer vegoil cues against firming meal needs later in the quarter.

Humanitarian and tender demand added a side note. USDA issued a tender seeking 26,700 MT of U.S. sorghum for Kenya with November 10–20 shipment, a reminder that targeted government programs can redirect grain flows at the margin and support Gulf logistics windows heading into late fall.

Macro policy threads stayed in the background but matter for price formation. U.S. lawmakers continued debating farmer-aid mechanisms, including possible use of tariff revenues, while ag agencies highlighted near-record support levels expected this year. Policy cushioning may influence acreage, marketing, and storage decisions—particularly if crop prices stay under pressure into the post-harvest window.

Forward crop narratives remained split by hemisphere. Analysts held Argentina wheat near 19.8 MMT amid early-September dryness relief before new rains, while long-range outlooks suggested U.S. 2026/27 wheat production near 51.7 MMT on reduced area despite constructive yield potential. For traders, the message is clear: weather into Southern Hemisphere planting and Northern Hemisphere autumn work remains the decisive swing factor.