Wheat

Chicago opened Tuesday a touch weaker after a muted Monday close. December ’25 CBOT wheat started the day near $5.17¼/bu (≈2¼¢ under Monday’s $5.19½ settle) as traders weighed a slower EU export cadence against steady tender interest from North Africa and Asia. Crop Progress kept the U.S. winter wheat campaign broadly seasonal, and with the quarterly Grain Stocks print due later today, the board leaned defensive even as recent inspections stayed serviceable.

Corn

Corn began fractionally lower, with December ’25 around $4.19½/bu (≈2¢ below Monday’s $4.21½ close). Last week’s surprise build in U.S. ethanol stocks continues to hang over near-term grind, but export inspections were firm and Mexico, Japan and South Korea remained active takers. With Grain Stocks in focus and Mississippi/Delta river stages back under pressure into October, basis and barge flow risks are front-of-mind despite supportive overseas demand.

Soybeans

November ’25 soybeans started softer near $10.07¾/bu (≈2¾¢ under Monday’s $10.10½ finish) as funds leaned net short across beans, meal, and oil. U.S. shipments are improving but still trail typical early-season pace without China; meanwhile Brazil’s planting pace is record-fast, though a drier turn in central areas raises germination risk on earliest fields.

Global market drivers

Poland’s bigger crop resets EU optics. Warsaw’s statistical office lifted 2025 wheat output to 13.4 MMT (from 12.8), barley to 3.0 MMT and total grains to 37.1 MMT. The upgrade adds another layer of competition to already heavy Black Sea and Australian offers and helps explain why Chicago rallies keep stalling into quarter-end.

Ship lanes stayed busy even as U.S. futures hesitated. Weekly U.S. inspections printed ~1.53 MMT corn, ~594k soybeans, and ~739k wheat, with Mexico leading corn, Germany/EMEA picking up beans, and Nigeria/Bangladesh/Japan prominent for wheat. Futures open interest rose in SRW/HRW and corn while slipping in soy and products—more rotation than short-covering as funds re-balance into month-end.

China’s import calculus hardened around South America. USDA’s Beijing post held 2025/26 soybean imports at 106 MMT (below the official WASDE), citing modest crush growth and a continued tilt to Brazilian/Argentine origin. Beijing also trimmed 2025/26 rapeseed import ideas after duties on Canada, while a still-large sow herd (~40.38M) points to steady—but unspectacular—meal pull.

Brazil sprinted into planting—and into the export queue. AgRural pegged soybean sowing at 3.2% (vs. 0.9% a week earlier), with Center-South first-crop corn at 32%. Exporters nudged September soybean shipments toward ~7.15 MMT; corn still needs pace to reach ~40 MMT on the year. CEPEA flagged soft spot corn in several regions as users sit on stocks, while soybean oil’s share of crush margins hit a record on resilient biodiesel demand.

Veg-oil balances tightened on two fronts. Indonesia’s palm sector flagged exports rising toward 30 MMT in 2025 on stronger India demand, with the CPO reference price raised for October and export tax/levy intact. Malaysia’s September exports rose ~7% m/m, and futures hovered ~4,35x–4,45x ringgit. Into early 2026, several houses now see $100–$150/t upside risk across palm/soyoil if policy (e.g., B-blends) firms while yields soften.

Weather split the Americas and Asia. Dry, warm U.S. Northern Plains and mostly-dry Midwest through Friday favor row-crop harvest, but the Delta’s brief river reprieve is fading, reviving low-water risk into October. Southern Brazil (RS/PR) holds scattered showers; central Brazil (MT/GO) turns drier mid-week. India’s monsoon finished its strongest run in five years—good for rice/pulses and potentially softer food inflation—while heavy rains threaten parts of China’s North China Plain before a cooler push.

Black Sea/EU headlines kept wheat competitive. The European Commission lifted EU soft-wheat output to ~132.6 MMT, even as Ukraine reported ~30.4 MMT of grains cut from 63% of area and Russia eyed fresh access to China for winter wheat and barley. At the same time, Russia declared an ag emergency in Rostov after drought/frost hit ~1M ha, shifting top-producer status to Stavropol—an internal reshuffle that could alter quality logistics even if export math stays strong.

North Africa became a focal outlet for EU grain. France Intercéréales targeted ~3 MMT of French milling wheat to Morocco (≈60% of Morocco’s milling needs), underscoring how Maghreb demand is anchoring EU flows while the bloc’s overall export pace lags last year. That support helped offset weaker internal prices in southern Brazil, where Argentina’s brief tax holiday pressured wheat offers to import parity before levies were reinstated.

Macro and corporate currents added texture. India lifted kharif rice area and posted its best monsoon since 2020, while exploring U.S. corn imports for ethanol in broader energy talks. In ag-corporate land, Bunge slated an Oct. 15 update on its 2025 outlook post-Viterra integration—a bellwether for origination, crush, and logistics footprints across the Americas and Black Sea as Q4 accelerates.