Wheat

Chicago soft red wheat for Dec ’25 opened the Thursday session effectively around $5.11/bu, up about 1¾¢ from Wednesday’s settlement at $5.09¼. The complex ended the prior session mixed—CBOT SRW clawed into the green, while KC HRW eased 2–3¢ and Minneapolis spring stayed weaker—with traders balancing a drier 7-day U.S. forecast that supports fieldwork against localized showers in southern Nebraska and northern Kansas that could briefly slow winter-wheat planting. Open interest rose by over 13k SRW contracts on Wednesday, and a fresh Saudi tender for 420,000 t hard wheat keeps export tone in focus as weekly U.S. sales reporting pauses.

Corn

December ’25 corn started the day near $4.1625/bu (¼¢ below Wednesday’s $4.16½ close), after finishing the previous session with fractional gains and a notable ~21,900-contract build in open interest. The DOE/EIA print showed ethanol output slipping to 995k bpd and stocks falling 3% to 22.764 mln bbl, a mild headwind for grind even as the market awaits delayed export-sales confirmation. Private updates trimmed the U.S. yield to 185.9 bpa but lifted production to 16.737 bbu on higher harvested acres in USDA’s prior update—keeping spreads sensitive to any policy or weather surprises.

Soybeans

November ’25 soybeans eased to roughly $10.11/bu at the Thursday start (about 2¢ under Wednesday’s $10.13 close) despite a strong finish yesterday and firmer soyoil overnight. StoneX nudged yield ideas up to 53.9 bpa and production to 4.326 bbu, while July biodiesel use of soyoil hit an eight-month high at 1.108 billion lbs. Macro-political headlines added noise: U.S.–China rhetoric flagged soy as a top agenda item in upcoming talks, yet near-term Chinese buying remains oriented to South America, tempering U.S. export optimism until official data resumes.

The immediate macro driver is data darkness: USDA said the WASDE report is suspended “until further notice” due to a lapse in government funding, removing a key compass for global balance sheets. Without the benchmark S&D tables, private estimates, weather models and physical-flow signals take center stage, raising the risk of sharper moves around any surprise revisions once official reporting returns.

U.S. weekly export sales are also delayed. Ahead of the pause, market surveys pointed to 1.4–2.0 MMT for corn and 0.5–1.6 MMT for soybeans for the week ending Sept 25. The lack of fresh confirmations blunts proof points for both bulls and bears in today’s session, keeping attention on basis moves, Gulf/PNW lineups and any fresh tender activity.

Energy and crush cues feed back into the grains. DOE reported ethanol stocks down to 22.764 million barrels and production at 995k bpd, both softer than expectations, a modest drag on corn grind sentiment. On the veg-oil side, recent firmness in palm oil and strong U.S. biodiesel draw underpin soyoil, partially offsetting bean-complex weakness tied to export uncertainty.

Private crop analytics reset U.S. row-crop baselines. StoneX cut its corn yield to 185.9 bpa while lifting corn output on acreage, and raised soybean yield to 53.9 bpa with production at 4.326 bbu. With WASDE sidelined, these revisions carry extra weight for curve shape and inter-commodity spreads, especially into mid-October weather windows.

Trade policy headlines remain a swing factor for soy. Washington signaled soybeans will be central in talks with Beijing in four weeks, but officials and market participants cautioned that near-term U.S. sales are not “imminent,” as China continues to lean on South American supply. Any credible signs of stepped-up Chinese U.S. purchases would quickly echo through Gulf basis and Nov/Jan spreads.

China is also reshaping oilseed-meal sourcing. After imposing a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and oil, buyers snapped up ~52,000 t Indian rapeseed meal in three weeks—four times the country’s total 2024 intake from India—at CIF $220–$235/t. If sustained, this pivot could pressure regional meal premia and ripple into soymeal and sunflower-meal trade flows across Asia.

The Black Sea adds a structural wheat input: Ukraine lifted its winter-wheat area projection by 9% to at least 5.2 million ha for the 2026 harvest, shifting acreage away from drought-hit corn and sunflower. Greater winter-wheat resilience and export potential, assuming logistics hold, is a medium-term bearish weight on global wheat values.

South America is in flux. Argentina’s 2025/26 corn production is projected up 8.4% y/y to 54.2 MMT on stronger profitability, permanent cuts to export levies (corn to 9.5%), and better management of leafhopper-borne spiroplasma—while soybean output is penciled lower at 47.4 MMT amid acreage shifts and a La Niña-skewed risk profile for Dec–Feb. These cross-currents reprice FOBs and basis in the Atlantic, directly competing with U.S. offers.

Weather remains market-moving across key belts. Central Brazil stays too dry for reliable early soy establishment until mid-October rains, while southern Brazil benefits from timely moisture; Argentina holds decent soil reserves with more fronts due; the U.S. Midwest and Plains are warm and mostly dry into a weekend front that could disrupt harvest but aid winter-wheat establishment; Europe faces a windy, wet system except Spain; Ukraine gains rainfall but southwestern Russia stays dry; Australia’s drier stretch threatens wheat/canola during reproduction and fill. These patterns are steering basis, spreads, and optional origin switches today.