Global Market Drivers

The global grain market this week reflected a wider set of cross-currents beyond simple supply and demand.

U.S.–China trade standoff. President Trump’s remarks that “we’ll be fine with China” provided political theater, but Beijing’s refusal to purchase U.S. beans reinforced a realignment toward South America. The U.S. tried to diversify markets by initiating talks with South American crushers, while Canada engaged China on tariffs, especially concerning canola.

Processing and demand resilience. U.S. NOPA crush at record highs underscored robust domestic demand. Ethanol output ticked higher week-on-week, lending corn demand stability despite the ongoing USDA export data blackout. India’s oilmeal exports climbed to 299,252 tons in September, led by rapeseed meal, underscoring Asia’s appetite for protein meals.

South American dominance. Brazil surged ahead on soy and corn planting, with moisture conditions healthier than last year. Argentina faced localized risks, with forecasts of frost threatening wheat yields, even as corn planting approached 30%. Brazil’s October export ideas were raised across soy, soymeal, and corn, confirming its export engine.

Europe’s mixed picture. FranceAgriMer lifted soft-wheat and corn export expectations while trimming stocks, tightening balances. Yet sluggish wheat shipments highlight stiff competition from Russia. Eastern Europe also saw diverging outcomes: Romania expanded rapeseed dominance, while Bulgaria slid toward corn import dependence.

Black Sea divergence. Ukraine lagged in winter sowing, with wheat area down 15% year-on-year and corn exports plunging 68%. Freight costs, paperwork delays, and weather-related harvest difficulties added strain. Russia, conversely, kept exports active, shipping 52,000 MT of wheat to Indonesia in October after lab accreditation extensions.

Weather as a macro lever. Extended warmth in North America supported harvest but delayed frost, lowering immediate supply risks. Brazil’s wet season rains were gradually settling in, while Argentina faced wet northern soils and localized dryness. Australia’s wetter October outlook bolstered wheat and canola, while Southeast Asia rains boosted palm. A persistent negative Indian Ocean Dipole hinted at tempered weather extremes across Asia and North America.

Vegetable oil volatility. Malaysia maintained its crude palm oil export tax at the maximum 10% for November, adding uncertainty to veg-oils. Russia cut sunflower seed harvest forecasts to a 13-year low, contrasting with Brazil’s ample soybean and oilseed outlook. Buyers are recalibrating substitutions across palm, soy, and sunflower oil markets.

Secondary supply channels. Kazakhstan’s harvest reached 25.9 MMT, exceeding expectations, and improved flows to Iran and Afghanistan. These alternative routes may gain weight as buyers hedge against Black Sea volatility.

Wheat Market Trends

Wheat markets swung between support and pressure. Chicago SRW December ’25 futures closed Thursday at $5.02½/bu, modestly higher, after testing weaker levels earlier in the week. Kansas City hard red wheat trailed, while Minneapolis spring wheat softened further. The trade weighed drier forecasts for the Southern Plains—positive for planting but worrisome for soil reserves—against heavy precipitation prospects in SRW areas.

European data helped stabilize sentiment. FranceAgriMer reported wheat planting at 27% complete, well ahead of last year, and lifted its export forecasts while trimming ending stock projections. Still, sluggish outflows earlier in the season highlight the pressure of Russian competition. Russia’s reduction in export taxes kept FOB offers competitive, though global benchmarks capped their upside. Ukraine’s wheat shipments lagged, reinforcing market share shifts across Black Sea origins.

Corn Market Performance

Corn strengthened through the week. December ’25 CBOT closed Thursday at $4.21¾/bu, gaining 5 cents, with Friday’s early session adding another 2½ cents. Bear-spread unwinding, firm cash markets, and supportive ethanol data underpinned prices. The U.S. national average cash corn price lifted to $3.79¼, and crop insurance harvest averages stood at $4.18. Weekly ethanol production ticked up to 1.074 million barrels per day, with stocks edging lower.

Global demand was visible in Asia: South Korea booked 269,000 MT through private tenders, while Taiwan purchased 65,000 MT of U.S. corn. Romania’s FOB Constanța strengthened $5/mt to $223/mt, supported by EU import demand and Ukrainian harvest delays. Bulgaria, by contrast, is turning into a net importer, underscoring structural weakness. Poland’s farmers faced losses with unprofitable corn prices, further complicating regional balance sheets.

In South America, Brazil maintained a bullish tone. Safrinha corn planting surged ahead, and estimates for the 2025/26 crop clustered around 138 MMT, underpinned by corn-ethanol expansion and healthy moisture. Argentina, with nearly 30% corn planted, faced a cold snap that could trim wheat yield expectations and indirectly shift planting dynamics.

Soybean Market Dynamics

Soybeans led the bullish tone in oilseeds. November ’25 CBOT closed Thursday at $10.10¾/bu, up 4¼ cents, with early Friday adding another 4 cents. Support came from a record NOPA crush in September at 197.863 million bushels, well above expectations and the fourth-highest monthly total on record. Soymeal rallied 50¢–$1.00, while soyoil slipped fractionally month-on-month but stayed 16.6% above last year.

China remained a drag, continuing its pause on U.S. soybean purchases. Traders noted China had covered needs into November, largely via Argentina, but still required 8–9 MMT for Dec–Jan. With Brazilian premiums high, Beijing may be forced to release state reserves if U.S. beans remain shut out. Open interest in soybeans jumped by more than 6,000 contracts, reflecting intensified speculative engagement.

Brazil’s planting pace added further pressure, advancing at one of the fastest rates on record. Forecasts now put soybean output near 178 MMT for 2025/26, cementing its role as global anchor.

Black Sea Region Developments

The Black Sea region remains a focal point for global grain markets, with weather patterns, policy shifts, and logistical constraints shaping trade flows. Recent weeks have highlighted the tension between abundant harvest potential and the structural challenges that continue to weigh on competitiveness.

Wheat output across the region is strong, but demand has been described as cautious. Russia’s decision to lower export taxes has helped bolster the competitiveness of FOB offers from its ports, yet global market ceilings remain in place, limiting price momentum. Hungary’s wheat market has shown greater resilience with only marginal declines, while the broader trend for 2025/26 points toward a rotation in market share among Russia, Ukraine, and Romania, underlining how shifting cost structures and trade preferences are reshaping the competitive balance.

Corn developments reveal a more difficult outlook. Romania’s FOB Constanța corn price climbed by USD 5/mt over the week, reaching USD 223/mt, reflecting stronger EU demand and poor harvesting conditions in Ukraine. Bulgaria, however, is projected to become a net corn importer, exposing structural production weaknesses and reinforcing dependence on external supply. Poland faces a similarly challenging environment, with low corn prices leading to loss-making production and eroding farmer profitability.

In the oilseeds sector, Romania continues to strengthen its position, with rapeseed output projected at a record 2.49 MMT in 2025 due to record area and yields. Bulgaria is transitioning toward value-added exports of rapeseed oil and meal, signaling a shift in supply-chain dynamics. However, the sunflower crop in Hungary has underperformed despite record acreage, pressuring crushers and exporters. Ukraine, for its part, is prioritizing sunflower oil production despite raw material shortages, as much of the crop remains unharvested or in storage.

Ukraine’s agricultural sector also faces regulatory and logistical headwinds. Exporters continue to struggle with paperwork for rapeseed and soybean shipments despite official pledges to lift duties, while freight costs remain elevated. Prolonged rains have slowed corn harvesting, raising drying and logistics costs. Wheat demand is gradually recovering, particularly for higher-quality grain, but barley remains the priciest feed grain, limiting buying interest. These hurdles underscore Ukraine’s ongoing challenge to maintain its role as a reliable supplier within the Black Sea grain corridor.

Conclusion

The week of October 13–17 showcased the delicate balance between supply strength and policy risk. Soybeans benefited most from strong crush and Brazil’s planting surge, corn drew steady support from ethanol and Asian demand, while wheat remained constrained by cautious buying and heavy competition.

Global market drivers—from trade frictions and weather signals to South America’s dominance—paint a picture of resilience, but also of shifting trade maps. As October closes, the grain market stands at a crossroads where robust supply collides with fragile demand, leaving trade policy and weather as the ultimate arbiters of momentum.