Wheat — $5.02/bu (Dec ’25 CBOT) at the start of Tuesday’s trade. Chicago wheat eased from Monday’s $5.04¾ close as early inter-class spreading left SRW softer and HRW little changed, with MPLS near steady. Traders are balancing a wetter Midwest that may slow remaining U.S. harvest runs against a drier window in the Central/Southern Plains later this week, with 1–3 inches still projected for southeastern Plains zones. Algeria’s tender keeps demand cues alive, while Russia’s crop ideas firmed marginally.

Corn — $4.21½/bu (Dec ’25 CBOT) at the start of Tuesday’s trade. Futures opened a touch lower versus Monday’s $4.23¼ settle as open interest fell into the new week and harvest hedging continued. U.S. inspections remained constructive at 1.317 MMT, Mexico leading, with firm Asian appetite evidenced by South Korean tendering. Weather stays a swing factor: widespread Midwest rains boost Mississippi levels but may briefly slow fieldwork in the east; drier Northern/Central Plains mid-week should help logistics.

Soybeans — $10.33¾/bu (Nov ’25 CBOT) at the start of Tuesday’s trade. Beans added a couple of cents on the open after Monday’s 12¼-cent rally, supported by firm products and friendlier trade rhetoric, even as U.S. export inspections (1.474 MMT) remain well below last year’s pace. Record-fast U.S. crush keeps the domestic balance sturdy, but China’s purchases continue to lean on Brazil and Argentina, and Brazil’s planting pace accelerated again.

Global market drivers

U.S. harvest cadence versus October rains is front and center. A major and persisting wet spell across the Midwest this week could naturally close the main spring-crop harvest window, nudging basis and interior logistics while temporarily aiding Mississippi River levels. The Central/Southern Plains trend drier mid-week before a compact system late week brings another rain pulse, supportive for winter-wheat establishment but uneven for fieldwork.

Brazil’s pace keeps the supply engine humming. AgRural pegged soybean planting 24% complete as of Oct 16 and first-crop corn 51% in the Center-South—both ahead of last year—with timely Center-West rains doubling soy area week-over-week. A frontal passage shifts showers north, leaving most crop areas cooler and drier for much of this week before the next front restarts central-Brazil rainfall early next week—ideal if the dry break doesn’t extend.

Argentina’s balance tilts favorable but weather-watchy. October dryness helped bleed off excessive Pampas moisture; another front slides slowly north this week to refresh soils for corn, with soybean planting poised to begin in late October and ramp in November. Front frequency is starting to slow, a subtle risk if rains underperform into November.

Asia’s demand and weather signals are mixed. Heavy rains are forecast across parts of Asia over 10–15 days with flood risk in India and Vietnam, while Tropical Storm Fengshen targets central Vietnam—main rain bands likely missing key coffee zones. Chinese ag futures opened firmer for soybeans/meal/oil, corn up modestly; domestically, drier windows aid NE China corn/soy harvest while central China enjoys better establishment conditions for winter wheat/canola.

Policy headlines cut across veg-oils and trade. Indonesia’s September palm-oil exports fell 39% m/m across major refined streams and CPO, with shipments to the EU, India and China all sharply lower. In Brazil, officials cautioned the B15→B16 biodiesel hike may miss the March 2026 deadline—an overhang for soyoil demand expectations. The EU is set to offer six months of leeway on its deforestation law while simplifying obligations for smallholders—material for soy, beef and palm flows into the bloc.

Trade diplomacy remains market-moving. Washington–Beijing meetings are back on the calendar, but the U.S. weekly Crop Progress remains suspended, keeping traders reliant on surveys: corn harvest seen 59% and soy 74% complete as of Oct 19. Meanwhile, political noise around U.S. meat imports from Argentina underscores how food inflation optics can spill into ag import policy—even if direct grain demand impacts are limited.

Black Sea and Europe watch winter risks and sowing pace. Ukraine reported 74% completion of winter sowing (4.8m ha) for the 2026 harvest, with area planned up y/y. A weak polar-vortex setup points to frequent cold outbreaks over Europe this winter, with SW Russia still too dry and low snow cover elevating winterkill risk; systems arriving from western Europe late week should improve coverage, though the seasonal clock is ticking for meaningful benefit.

Freight, fuel and corporate pivots add texture. Maersk is testing Brazilian ethanol-methanol-diesel blends for marine fuel, part of a wider push to decarbonize shipping that could incrementally influence biofuel feedstock flows over time. On the ground, inspections data showed U.S. weekly exports improving for corn and soy, with Mexico leading corn and Nigeria topping wheat—evidence of steady, selective demand despite macro cross-currents.