Wheat

CBOT December ’25 wheat settled at $5.00¼/bu, down 4½¢ on the day, with SRW leading losses while HRW and spring wheat also faded into the close. Traders weighed a forecast calling for 1–3 inches of rain in parts of the Southern Plains over the next week—supportive for winter-wheat establishment—against still-comfortable world supplies. Algeria’s latest soft-wheat tender kept demand cues alive. On fundamentals, IKAR nudged Russia’s wheat crop idea to 88 MMT and Ukraine reported winter wheat sowing progress at ~74% of intended area, while EU data showed Ukraine’s season-to-date wheat exports still trailing last year.

Corn

CBOT December ’25 corn finished at $4.19¾/bu, down 3½¢, as “Turnaround Tuesday” pressure and profit-taking cut into recent gains. U.S. cash corn averaged $3.79½ and the month-to-date futures average held near $4.19, keeping crop-insurance price discovery in focus. Near-term U.S. ethanol output is expected to hold roughly steady after last week’s strong print, while exports stayed engaged: a South Korean buyer booked ~67,000 MT overnight and Brazil’s October corn exports are seen near 6.57 MMT. Weather-wise, Midwest rains are boosting Mississippi River levels but can briefly slow fieldwork before a drier mid-week window improves logistics in the Northern/Central Plains.

Soybeans

CBOT November ’25 soybeans slipped to $10.30¾/bu, down 1¢, as modest product divergence (meal steady to higher, soyoil lower) met lingering macro and trade cross-currents. With just over a week and a half left in harvest price discovery, the average nearby settle sits near $10.18. On the flow side, ANEC lifted October Brazil soybean export ideas to ~7.34 MMT; the EU’s seasonal bean imports since July are running slightly below last year. Markets also digested fresh U.S. tariff talk toward China into November, keeping attention on diplomacy headlines and South American pace.

Global Market Drivers

Weather remains the dominant near-term force across production regions. Persistent Midwest rains are slowing the tail end of U.S. corn and soybean harvests, even as the moisture temporarily stabilizes Mississippi River levels for barge traffic. Forecasts show the Central and Southern Plains trending drier midweek, aiding logistics, before another round of rainfall arrives later in the week to support winter wheat establishment. In South America, Brazil’s fast planting pace is underpinned by favorable rains in the Center-West, though a shifting front could leave much of the soybean belt temporarily cooler and drier before moisture returns next week. Argentina’s October dryness helped drain excess Pampas moisture, with new rains forecast to recharge soils and support corn stands as soybean sowing approaches.

Trade dynamics continue to frame market sentiment. U.S. export inspections for the week highlighted steady, selective demand: Mexico remained the leading buyer of U.S. corn, while Nigeria topped the wheat ledger, underscoring strong African demand. Soybean inspections, however, lagged behind last year, reinforcing the pressure from China’s absence. Beijing’s customs data confirmed that Brazil has shipped 63.7 MMT of soybeans to China so far this year, alongside 2.9 MMT from Argentina, while no U.S. beans were recorded in September for the first time since 2018. Analysts warn this heavy reliance on South America could expose China to a supply gap by February–April without a breakthrough in trade talks.

Diplomatic moves are closely monitored. The U.S. Treasury confirmed a meeting between Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia next week to try to avoid tariff escalation ahead of the November 10 deadline. President Trump also signaled a possible meeting with Xi Jinping in South Korea. While this has steadied risk sentiment, the trade door for U.S. soybeans remains firmly shut.

Policy headlines outside of U.S.–China relations are shaping vegetable oil and grain flows. Indonesia reported a 39% drop in palm oil exports in September, with sharp declines to the EU, India, and China. Brazil signaled that the transition from B15 to B16 biodiesel blending may miss the March 2026 deadline, tempering long-term soyoil demand expectations. In Europe, regulators plan to ease the rollout of the deforestation law by granting six months of leeway and simplifying rules for smallholders—adjustments that could influence soybean, palm, and beef flows into the bloc.

Australia has emerged as another supply cushion. Updated forecasts raised wheat production to 35.7 MMT, the third-largest on record, alongside a record 15 MMT of barley. Canola is projected at nearly 6.5 MMT. Robust yields in Western Australia are offsetting southern losses, adding to already comfortable global balances and extending downward pressure on Chicago futures.

Europe and the Black Sea face seasonal challenges. Ukraine has completed 74% of winter sowing—4.8 million hectares—at a higher area than last year. However, the setup for winter looks risky: a weak polar vortex could lead to frequent cold outbreaks, with southwestern Russia remaining excessively dry and vulnerable to winterkill due to low snow cover. Late-arriving systems from Western Europe may provide some relief, but the time window for meaningful soil recharge is closing.

Asian demand signals remain mixed. Tropical Storm Fengshen is projected to hit central Vietnam this week, with heavy rains raising flood risk in rice-growing areas while largely missing coffee zones. In China, agricultural futures for soy, meal, and oil opened firmer, with domestic weather improving conditions for winter wheat and canola establishment. Northeast China’s harvest of corn and soy is advancing under drier skies, reinforcing the view of a solid domestic grain balance.

Corporate and logistical developments added further texture. Louis Dreyfus and Molinos advanced a $1.3 billion debt restructuring offer for Argentina’s troubled soy exporter Vicentin, highlighting ongoing consolidation in South America’s oilseed sector. Meanwhile, Maersk is piloting ethanol-methanol-diesel marine fuel blends in Brazil as part of its decarbonization push, signaling how fuel innovation may incrementally influence biofuel feedstock demand.