Grain Market Overview: Start Wednesday 22.10.2025

China’s soy demand stays patchy as Brazil sprints; October rains, export signals, and policy noise steer this week’s trade tape

Wheat — On Tuesday, Chicago wheat lost early traction and faded into the close. The attached report does not publish the official settlement; the last indicated level late in the session showed Dec ’25 CBOT around $5.03/bu, up roughly 2¾¢ on the day. Trade weighed a 1–3 inch rain forecast for parts of the Southern Plains—helpful for winter‐wheat establishment—against still-comfortable global supply. Algeria’s soft-wheat tender kept demand cues alive, while fresh Black Sea updates had Russia’s 2025 harvest idea nudged to ~88 MMT and Ukraine reporting winter wheat sowing near three-quarters complete.

Corn — Corn eased after recent gains, with “Turnaround Tuesday” profit-taking clipping the board. While the source pack doesn’t list the final settle, the last quoted mark into the afternoon showed Dec ’25 near $4.23/bu, up about 3¼¢ at mid-day before late pressure. U.S. cash corn averaged ~$3.79½, and near-term ethanol output was expected to hold firm following last week’s strong print; EIA later confirmed production near multi-month highs with a draw in stocks. Export tone stayed constructive as South Korea booked fresh tonnage and Brazil’s October corn exports were guided higher.

Soybeans — Beans were narrowly softer by the close after an early attempt to extend Monday’s rally. The document does not include the official settlement; the last intraday indication had Nov ’25 around $10.34¼/bu, up ~3½¢ at mid-day before slipping to finish about a penny lower. Product values diverged (meal steady-firm, soyoil softer) as the market digested ongoing U.S.–China friction and brisk South American pace; Brazil’s October soybean export ideas were lifted again, underscoring the pull toward Atlantic origins while U.S. weekly inspections lag last year.

Global market drivers

U.S. weather is the near-term throttle. Persistent Midwest rains are slowing the tail of corn and soybean harvests even as the moisture temporarily props up Mississippi River levels for barge flow. The Central/Southern Plains trend drier mid-week—helping logistics—before another compact system late week adds moisture for winter-wheat stands. Into next week, models suggest a wetter push that could naturally close the optimal harvest window in parts of the Corn Belt.

Brazil’s supply engine keeps humming. AgRural pegged soybean planting at roughly a quarter done nationwide and first-crop corn about half planted in the Center-South—both ahead of last year. A frontal passage shifts showers north, leaving much of the belt briefly cooler/drier before central-Brazil rainfall restarts early next week. Export boards reflect it: ANEC upped October programs for soy, soymeal, and corn, and interior prices firmed alongside a stronger USD/BRL.

China’s trade and weather signals are pulling in opposite directions. Customs and industry groups reported no new U.S. soy sales and nothing queued to load; flows are backing up into storage, heightening balance-sheet strain if carryover grows. Simultaneously, epic northern rains disrupted harvest, with government support mobilized for grain drying and drainage. The policy calendar matters: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng are slated to meet ahead of a potential Trump–Xi sit-down, but for now the U.S. soy door remains shut.

Policy and biofuel headlines added cross-currents. Indonesia’s Sept biodiesel use rose nearly 10% y/y under B40, with B50 targeted for 2H26—implications for global veg-oil balances if realized. In the U.S., the American Petroleum Institute reversed support for year-round E15 expansion, signaling widening oil–ag divergence on biofuel policy. Brazil cautioned that the B15→B16 biodiesel hike may slip past March 2026, a mild overhang for forward soyoil demand.

Europe and the Black Sea are juggling sowing progress and winter risk. Ukraine reported ~74% completion of winter sowing (about 4.8m ha) with area planned up y/y, while a weak polar-vortex setup implies frequent cold outbreaks this winter. Southwestern Russia remains too dry with low snow cover—elevating winterkill risk unless late-arriving Atlantic systems materially improve soil moisture soon. Ukrainian wheat exports since July are still trailing last year, reflecting shifting competitiveness.

Australia’s crop cushion is thickening. Forecasts lifted wheat to ~35.7 MMT (third-largest on record) and barley to a record ~15 MMT, with canola near 6.5 MMT. Robust Western Australian yields offset southern shortfalls where some fields were cut for fodder, adding tonnage to an already comfortable global balance and extending pressure on Chicago benchmarks.

Freight, fuels, and corporate moves round out the tape. Maersk is piloting ethanol–methanol–diesel marine fuel blends in Brazil—an early signal of how shipping decarbonization could nudge biofuel feedstock flows. In Argentina, Louis Dreyfus and Molinos advanced a $1.3B restructuring offer for Vicentin, marking continued consolidation in the soy complex. Meanwhile, U.S. inspections showed steady, selective demand: Mexico led corn, Nigeria topped wheat.

U.S. farm policy stepped back into the frame. USDA said it will resume key Farm Service Agency operations during the federal shutdown, including farm loan processing and safety-net programs (ARC/PLC) tied to price fluctuations. The administration also floated additional farmer aid to cushion soy exposure amid China’s blockade—another reminder that policy remains a live driver of cash-flow and hedging decisions into late October.