Wheat — Chicago December 2025 closed at $5.13/bu (▲9¼¢). The complex firmed across all three U.S. exchanges, with strength helped by a broader commodities bid alongside a rally in crude oil. Traders also digested IGC’s bigger 2025/26 world wheat crop and stock figures even as export-sales data were missing due to the U.S. government shutdown.

Corn — Chicago December 2025 settled at $4.28/bu (▲5¢). Prices edged higher on spillover from wheat and soy and firmer energy, while U.S. cash averages ticked up. With export-sales delayed, the market leaned on estimates and IGC’s steady global corn production view with higher ending stocks.

Soybeans — November 2025 finished $10.44¾/bu (▲10¢). Beans climbed with meal and oil as crude rallied; options expiry today kept positioning active. The trade weighed talk of Chinese buyers sidestepping sanctioned Russian crude and the run-up to expected U.S.–China talks. IGC trimmed world soy output and stocks.

Global drivers

Momentum into the end of the week hinged on U.S.–China signals: President Trump said he expects agreements with President Xi next week that could include resumed U.S. soybean purchases, even as Washington and Beijing spar over rare-earths and new U.S. tariffs slated for November 1. Markets interpreted the rhetoric as cautiously constructive for near-term ag trade flows.

In biofuels, the DOE reported a notable ethanol draw: U.S. ethanol stocks fell 3.1% to 21.919M bbl, with plant output at 1.112M bpd—a supportive input for corn demand at the margin.

The weekly U.S. export sales release was delayed indefinitely by the government shutdown, leaving the market to trade surveys: corn 0.8–1.6 MMT (avg ~1.28), soybeans 0.7–2.0 MMT (avg ~1.2). The data vacuum kept price action sensitive to rumor and outside markets.

In vegetable oils/policy, Indonesia’s planned B50 biodiesel mandate looks pushed from 2026 to 2027 amid funding and spread constraints—news that has buoyed crude palm oil pricing expectations near MYR 4,300–4,500/ton into year-end, with knock-on implications for soyoil and global veg-oil spreads.

Across global balances, the IGC lifted 2025/26 world wheat production to 827 MMT and raised ending stocks to 275 MMT; corn stocks were seen higher to 299 MMT on larger prior-year carry; soybeans were trimmed to 428 MMT with stocks down to 79 MMT—a mildly bearish tilt for wheat/corn and a touch tighter for soy.

South America weather remains pivotal: seasonal forecasts point to near-average November rains overall, slight dryness risk in southern Brazil, and wetter conditions in the Southeast; late-October patterns favor rapid soybean and corn planting in Brazil, while Argentina retains generally supportive moisture for planting and early corn growth.

A broader regional weather snapshot shows EU rainfall likely to delay planting/harvest, and Black Sea dryness—especially in southwestern Russia—still on watch despite incoming fronts; U.S. Plains moisture should aid winter wheat establishment, while Midwest frost pockets and wind slow harvest in spots. Logistics remain pressured by low Mississippi River levels.

In LatAm industry and U.S. protein policy, Argentina’s soy-crushing landscape remains fluid as Vicentin’s cramdown advances with cooperative backing for an LDC–Molinos JV, while the U.S. moved to bolster beef output and quadruple the Argentine beef TRQ to 80,000 t, potentially nudging feed and trade flows at the margin.

Add-ons shaping sentiment

U.S. corn fundamentals look steady near 421 MMT in private estimates, with warm, mostly dry October weather facilitating harvest and minimal frost risk. In China, heavy late-season rains and lodging in the North China Plain trimmed the corn crop to ~297.5 MMT and raised quality concerns—both developments to watch for import dynamics.