Wheat closed Monday with Chicago December ’25 at $5.26/bu, up 13½¢ on the day, as winter wheats led an early-week bounce. The tone reflected friendlier macro risk sentiment around anticipated U.S.–China talks, progress in European winter sowing and widespread Black Sea rains that improve pre-dormancy conditions. Export inspections were soft week-over-week, but the market read diplomatic headlines as mildly supportive into Tuesday’s trade.

Corn finished Monday with December ’25 at $4.28¾/bu, up 5½¢, helped by spillover strength and steadier energy. U.S. export inspections printed 1.187 MMT for the week, still comfortably above last year, while AgRural pegged Brazil’s first-crop planting at about 55% and field moisture improved with fresh fronts. Into Tuesday, traders balanced firmer sentiment with light cash tone as harvest and logistics headlines stayed in focus.

Soybeans led Monday, November ’25 settling $10.67¼/bu, up 25½¢, on better soymeal demand and weekend chatter about potential Chinese buying ahead of this week’s leaders’ meeting. Export inspections were lighter w/w, but meal firmness and renewed Brazil planting momentum underpinned bids into Tuesday, even as crushers in China wrestled with thin near-term crush margins.

Global Drivers and Market Headlines

Macro sentiment continued to steer agricultural markets, with optimism over geopolitical dialogue colliding with lingering trade uncertainties. The scheduled Trump–Xi meeting at the APEC summit later this week added a layer of risk appetite, but markets remained wary of unresolved tariff disputes. Washington’s decision to open a new Section 301 probe into China’s Phase One compliance served as a reminder that even with potential soybean buying headlines, trade relations remain fragile and headline-driven volatility is likely.

Export dynamics also featured prominently. U.S. weekly inspections showed mixed results, with corn shipments holding up well while soybeans came in lighter than expected. Traders noted that Brazil’s brisk October export pace is reinforcing its dominance in Chinese soybean sourcing, while U.S. sales to China have slowed. At the same time, Russia confirmed cumulative grain exports approaching record levels, underscoring its role as a price anchor in the Black Sea corridor despite higher domestic duties.

South American weather remained a critical driver of near-term sentiment. Southern Brazil received heavy weekend rainfall, and showers are now extending into central regions, restarting soybean seeding after recent delays. Argentina benefitted from widespread precipitation that supported wheat filling and early-corn progress, though cooler conditions added a watch-point for potential frost risk in southern provinces. With forecasts calling for another moisture-bearing system later this week, planting momentum in both countries is expected to remain strong.

In Europe, winter crop progress accelerated thanks to favorable early-October conditions. France reported sharp weekly gains in soft-wheat sowings, now over half complete, while winter barley surpassed 70% planted. German and UK farmers also advanced rapidly where maize and beet harvesting allowed. The trend suggests stable to slightly higher winter cereal area, with rapeseed the standout beneficiary as margins encouraged wider seeding across the bloc.

The Black Sea region shifted into focus as long-awaited rains arrived across Ukraine and southwestern Russia. These showers are improving pre-dormancy soil conditions and supporting root establishment for winter wheat. However, northern zones face an early dormancy window in November, and whether temperatures remain mild enough for late-seeded fields to establish properly will be a key determinant for next year’s crop potential.

Policy shifts in Russia highlighted the balance between domestic revenue needs and export competitiveness. The Agriculture Ministry reaffirmed its 50 MMT export target for 2025/26 but raised the wheat export duty by roughly 70% to 167.7 rubles/ton for the upcoming week. While barley and corn duties remain at zero, the floating wheat damper mechanism continues to influence FOB offers, with indicative export prices around $225/ton keeping Black Sea wheat sharply competitive.

Vegetable oils and biofuels injected cross-commodity signals into the session. Indonesia confirmed that its E10 gasoline blending mandate will now launch in 2027, while reaffirming cassava, corn, and sugarcane as feedstock options. Malaysia and South Africa pledged cooperation on certified palm oil trade, providing structural support to palm and spillover into soybean oil spreads. Meanwhile, Brazil’s booming corn-ethanol production is displacing cane ethanol, leading mills toward record sugar output into 2026—developments that ripple through both energy and oilseed complexes.

Finally, product demand trends added a bullish undertone. CEPEA flagged firmer soymeal demand, with CME December meal climbing more than 5% week-on-week and Brazilian spot values edging higher despite muted soyoil trade. Farmers in Brazil have remained reluctant sellers, prioritizing planting progress and mindful of logistical bottlenecks into early 2026. Corn prices inside Brazil also firmed as producers held back sales, reinforcing a broader trend of cautious farmer marketing even as export pipelines remain busy.