Wheat opened Wednesday with a firmer tone, with Chicago December ’25 quoted near $5.33/bu at the bell—roughly 4¢ above Tuesday’s settle at $5.29 as winter wheats extended this week’s bounce. Traders balanced still-light U.S. inspections with improving Black Sea moisture that supports pre-dormancy root development and steady sowing progress across Europe. The market stayed mindful that EU soft-wheat exports are lagging last year, but macro risk appetite and better agronomic headlines kept early buying interest intact.
Corn started the session around $4.34¼/bu for Chicago December ’25—up about 2¼¢ from Tuesday’s close at $4.32. Tone was underpinned by solid U.S. inspection pace and expectations for steady ethanol output, even as active harvest and mixed cash kept rallies measured. South American inputs were two-sided: Brazil’s first-crop corn planting advanced and rains returned to central areas, while Argentina’s cooler, drier stretch posed a watch-point for wheat fill and fieldwork cadence.
Soybeans led again at the open, with Chicago November ’25 trading near $10.89¾/bu—about 11½¢ over Tuesday’s settle at $10.78¼. The complex leaned on firm soymeal, brisk Brazilian planting momentum, and chatter around possible near-term Chinese buying ahead of leaders’ meetings. Softer weekly U.S. inspections and thinner crush margins in China tempered enthusiasm, but product strength and broader risk-on mood helped maintain an early bid.
Global drivers and key headlines
High-level U.S.–China diplomacy stayed center stage. Markets weighed optimism around leaders’ meetings later this week against lingering tariff uncertainty, keeping soy-led sentiment constructive but headline-sensitive. Parallel Canada–China outreach aimed at easing canola barriers added another oilseed angle that can ripple through veg-oil and protein-meal spreads.
Weather framed much of today’s risk. North America faced a moderately cold week with widespread frost potential before a warming trend, while Brazil shifted back to a wetter pattern as a persistent frontal zone migrated north and another system queued for early November—supportive for soil moisture but a near-term speed bump for soy/corn fieldwork in the South. Argentina turned cooler and drier, adding downside risk for wheat if dryness lingers.
Fresh U.S. flow data kept the tape busy in lieu of suspended Crop Progress reporting. Weekly export inspections printed 1.188 MMT corn, 1.061 MMT soybeans, and 0.259 MMT wheat, reinforcing corn’s steadier export pulse versus lighter soy volumes. Private surveys looked for corn harvest near 73% and soybeans near 84% as of Oct 26, maintaining a fast seasonal cadence.
South American fundamentals added momentum. Brazil’s soybean planting reached 36% by Oct 23 (from 24% a week earlier), and Center-South summer corn was 55% seeded, signaling a quickening pace as rains return. In Argentina, the Rural Society pressed the Milei administration for tax relief to restore farm competitiveness—an input that could shape crush economics, export flows, and planting decisions into the Southern Hemisphere summer.
Vegetable-oil policy currents sharpened cross-asset signals. Indonesia’s palm oil association lifted its 2025 output outlook to ~56 MMT with exports at 30–31 MMT, while Malaysia flagged zero tariffs on selected palm-oil products in a new U.S. trade deal—both supportive for palm and influential for soyoil/sunoil differentials. Jakarta is also weighing a domestic market obligation to back its B50 biodiesel plan, a lever that could tighten export availability if enacted.
Europe’s agronomic pulse was constructive but uneven. MARS trimmed EU corn and sunflower yields even as conditions for winter-grain establishment stayed broadly favorable across Western/Central Europe. Excess wetness slowed sowing in parts of Bulgaria/Romania, while dryness delayed plantings in Portugal, Spain, and pockets of eastern Croatia/Hungary—keeping emergence sensitive to timely rains through early November.
Regional supply stories rounded out the picture. Zimbabwe reported a bumper ~578 KMT wheat crop and is seeking export outlets for surplus, while India suffered late-monsoon downpours that damaged maturing soybean and cotton—risks that could tighten regional oilseed availability and reshape import needs if losses deepen.
Micro-market color stayed mixed. In southern Brazil, despite harvest delays and high field moisture (notably Paraná), domestic wheat prices drifted lower under pressure from competitive imports and ample global stocks. Across the Atlantic, registrations and open-interest shifts suggested early-week short-covering across wheat/corn/beans—consistent with firmer midweek board tone.