Wheat — Chicago Dec ’25 started the day quoted around $5.27½/bu, roughly 4¾¢ below Wednesday’s close at $5.32¼. The early tone reflected a pause after the week’s bounce in winter wheats as traders balanced still-light U.S. inspections with improving Black Sea moisture that supports pre-dormancy root development and steady sowing progress across Europe. Caution lingered with EU soft-wheat exports running behind last year, but the better agronomic backdrop and a broadly “risk-on” macro kept downside measured.
Corn — Chicago Dec ’25 opened near $4.34¼/bu, a touch firmer (≈¼¢) versus yesterday’s $4.34 settlement. Nearby support came from a solid U.S. inspections print and expectations for steady ethanol run rates, even as active harvest and mixed cash muted follow-through. South American inputs were two-sided: Brazil’s first-crop corn planting advanced as showers returned to central areas, while Argentina’s cooler, drier stretch kept a watch-flag on wheat fill and fieldwork cadence.
Soybeans — Chicago Nov ’25 began the session around $10.88/bu after Wednesday’s $10.80¼ close, with meal firmness and brisk Brazilian planting momentum underpinning bids. Chatter about possible near-term Chinese buying ahead of leaders’ meetings added intrigue despite thinner U.S. inspections week-over-week and thin near-term crush margins in China. Product spreads stayed influential, with meal strength helping offset softer soyoil.
Today’s global drivers and key headlines
China signaled just enough to steady bean sentiment. After high-level dialogue headlines, state trading activity reportedly surfaced and officials indicated commitments to buy U.S. soybeans in the period ahead. While symbolic more than sweeping, the optics kept nearby CBOT beans and meal supported and left the market watchful for any additional “flash” confirmations.
South American weather reset the near-term production narrative. Brazil flipped back to a wetter pattern as a persistent frontal zone migrated north and another system queued for early November—supportive for soil moisture but a short-term speed bump for soy/corn fieldwork in the South. Argentina turned cooler and drier; if that dryness lingers, downside risk rises for wheat finishing and fieldwork cadence, even as frost risk stays largely confined to the far south.
Black Sea moisture finally arrived and matters for new-crop. Widespread weekend rains, with additional showers into eastern Ukraine and western Russia, improved pre-dormancy conditions for winter wheat. Northern zones still face an early-November dormancy window, making temperatures and pattern persistence the key watch-items for stand establishment and 2026 yield potential. Separately, Ukraine’s October grain and legume exports slowed sharply, a reminder that logistics and weather continue to shape regional flows.
The EU export pulse remained a drag on rallies. The bloc’s soft-wheat shipments are running notably behind last year, even as barley exports improve and corn imports ease. The slower wheat pace tempered enthusiasm despite friendlier establishment weather, keeping Paris-Chicago spreads and replacement values in focus.
Biofuels and veg-oils added cross-asset currents. U.S. ethanol data pointed to softer weekly output alongside rising stocks—subtle, but enough to keep corn’s industrial demand narrative nuanced. In palm, a stronger policy tone from Southeast Asia—higher 2025 output/export outlooks and tariff adjustments—helped tighten soyoil/sunoil spreads at the margin, with knock-on implications for crush economics into winter.
Brazil’s on-the-ground pace underscored its front-foot role. October shipping programs remained brisk for soybeans, soymeal, and corn, while farmers—busy with fieldwork and mindful of early-2026 freight—were reluctant sellers. Product demand, especially for soymeal, continued to do heavy lifting for the complex despite softer soyoil trade.
Macro trade snippets rounded out the tape with a broadly ample cereal message. Russia maintained an assertive export posture against record harvest tallies; Japan signaled sizable U.S. ag purchases spanning corn/soy/ethanol; and Australia’s wheat outlook edged higher again on supportive imagery and weather. Together, these threads reinforced comfortable global grain availability against comparatively tighter oilseed balances.
Weather in North America turned from disruption to tailwind. After mid-week storms, a quieter, warmer outlook into November should help the U.S. harvest regain momentum, easing barge logistics pressure and smoothing interior basis—factors the market will track closely as the calendar flips.