Wheat

Wheat futures came under pressure throughout Thursday’s session, with losses across all major contracts. The Chicago December 2025 wheat contract closed at $5.24¼ per bushel, down 8 cents. Kansas City hard red winter wheat ended roughly 9–10 cents lower, while Minneapolis spring wheat slipped 9–10 cents across most months. The tone reflected a “sell-the-fact” response after the U.S.–China summit, where no specific wheat-related measures were announced beyond the general tariff relief. Fundamentally, dryness is expected across many key wheat-producing areas in the coming week, and South Korean millers tendered for 40,300 metric tons of wheat with bids due Friday. Meanwhile, the European Commission lifted its 2025 EU wheat production estimate by 0.8 MMT to 133.4 MMT, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 10.8 MMT. Despite some supportive news from Europe, broader profit-taking and a lack of fresh demand cues weighed on Chicago prices into the close.

Corn

Corn followed a softer path, pressured by light selling and cautious positioning after the Trump–Xi meeting. The Chicago December 2025 corn contract settled at $4.30¼ per bushel, down 3¾ cents, while the national average cash corn price eased 3½ cents to $3.91. Traders noted that although tariffs are set to be reduced, corn was not directly mentioned in China’s purchase commitments, which were focused primarily on soybeans. The meeting did, however, spark optimism for broader agricultural demand, with President Trump hinting that China would also import “massive amounts of sorghum.” With only one day left in the harvest price-discovery window for crop insurance, the October average close for December corn stood at $4.22 per bushel — 6 cents higher than last year’s level but 48 cents below the spring price. Weather across the U.S. Corn Belt remained generally favorable for fieldwork recovery, yet export momentum and end-user demand remained key watchpoints heading into November.

Soybeans

Soybeans were the clear outperformer on Thursday, rallying on renewed optimism following the trade accord between the U.S. and China. The Chicago November 2025 soybean contract closed at $10.91¼ per bushel, up 11 cents, after a volatile session that saw a 40-cent intraday range across front-month contracts. The national average cash soybean price rose 13¾ cents to $10.26¼, supported by firm soymeal gains of $2.10–6.90 per ton, even as soyoil futures slipped 20–52 points. China’s formal pledge to purchase 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans this year — followed by annual commitments of 25 MMT for the next three years — revived bullish sentiment across the oilseed complex. With tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods now expected to be lifted, American soy regained competitive footing against South American origins. The average October close for November soybeans stood at $10.32 per bushel, compared to $10.03 a year earlier, underscoring the market’s recovery as trade flows showed signs of normalization.

Global drivers

Global trade and diplomatic breakthroughs dominated Thursday’s narrative, providing mixed signals for the agricultural complex. The highly anticipated Trump–Xi summit in South Korea resulted in a one-year trade agreement that temporarily eased tensions between the world’s two largest economies. President Trump announced an immediate 10% tariff reduction on Chinese imports, citing Beijing’s pledge to resume large-scale U.S. soybean purchases, maintain the flow of rare earth exports, and curb fentanyl trafficking. China committed to buy 12 MMT of soybeans this year, with additional annual commitments of 25 MMT over the next three years, reviving optimism across the oilseed complex. Markets reacted cautiously but constructively, noting that tariff relief could also ripple through sorghum, ethanol, and potentially corn demand channels.

In parallel, China and Canada reopened dialogue over agri-food trade as customs and agricultural ministers met in Beijing to discuss improving market access for Canadian commodities. While no immediate agreements were announced, the discussions marked a potential thaw in relations that could affect canola and pulse trade flows, sectors still recovering from prior restrictions.

Elsewhere, Mexico’s livestock sector continued to face headwinds as the U.S. border remained closed to Mexican cattle exports due to the flesh-eating screwworm outbreak. Agriculture Minister Julio Berdegue confirmed that modular plants producing sterilized flies were being deployed to control the parasite, with plans for a new U.S.-funded facility in Chiapas by 2026. The closure, in place since May, continues to disrupt bilateral trade and pressure Mexico’s domestic meat supply chain.

Weather developments across key producing regions remained pivotal. In South America, Brazil’s central and southern regions entered another wet phase, improving soil moisture but slowing soybean and corn fieldwork, particularly in Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná, where flooding risks emerged. In Argentina, cool and dry weather persisted across much of the Pampas, helping wheat recovery after excessive rains but raising early-season drought concerns for corn. Analysts from LSEG maintained Argentina’s 2025/26 corn forecast at 54.2 MMT, though the developing La Niña pattern presents downside risks due to anticipated heat and dryness between December and February.

Paraguay entered the season on a strong footing, with forecasts calling for 10.8 MMT of soybeans, up nearly 6% year-over-year, driven by solid soil moisture and improved yields. Early corn prospects were also favorable amid abundant October rainfall, though a potential dry spell in November–December could limit peak productivity. These developments across the southern cone underscore a region poised for growth but vulnerable to climate variability.

The Black Sea region continued to attract attention as Ukraine’s October grain and legume exports fell 38% year-on-year to 2.28 MMT, with corn shipments down 65%. Despite the slowdown, Ukrainian farmers advanced winter sowing across 5.35 million hectares, covering 82% of planned area, though this remains below last year’s levels. Wetter conditions in eastern Ukraine and western Russia improved pre-dormancy prospects for winter wheat, yet logistics bottlenecks and weaker export momentum weighed on sentiment.

On the energy and biofuel front, U.S. ethanol stocks rose 2% week-over-week to 22.367 million barrels, while production eased to 1.091 million barrels per day—slightly below analyst expectations. This build in inventories highlighted seasonal demand fluctuations but reinforced confidence in steady industrial grain usage. In Southeast Asia, Indonesia reaffirmed its expectation for 0% tariffs on palm oil, cocoa, and rubber exports to the U.S., aligning with Malaysia’s recent trade gains. Jakarta also doubled down on its soybean self-sufficiency initiative, expanding defense-agriculture cooperation and aiming to eliminate imports within three years.

Australia, meanwhile, remained on a steady course, with rapeseed production unchanged at 6.3 MMT as mixed weather conditions maintained adequate soil moisture across Western and South Australia. Improved satellite readings and additional rainfall in Victoria were expected to bolster late grain filling, providing optimism for both canola and winter wheat outcomes.

Overall, Thursday’s global picture painted a cautiously supportive environment for grains and oilseeds: renewed U.S.–China trade cooperation lifted optimism, South American weather kept both risk and opportunity alive, and tightening logistical and policy dynamics across Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia continued to shape near-term pricing sentiment.