Core Market Drivers

Wheat was the dominant feature of Thursday’s session, posting double-digit gains across all three U.S. exchanges. Chicago SRW futures closed 13 to 15 1/4 cents higher, supported by short covering and renewed concerns about cold temperatures in parts of Russia’s winter wheat belt. The weather risk injected fresh premium into a market that had recently consolidated following WASDE adjustments.

U.S. export demand added further support. USDA reported 487,998 MT of wheat sales for the week ending February 5, up 30.52% from the prior week, though still 14.32% below the same week last year. The Philippines, Mexico, and Indonesia led buying, reinforcing active global trade flows and helping wheat futures extend gains into the close.

European supply revisions moderated but did not derail bullish momentum. Expana trimmed the EU 2026/27 wheat crop estimate to 128.3 MMT, while exports for 2025/26 were reduced to 27.6 MMT. French wheat exports outside the EU have more than doubled year-on-year, signaling strong international demand even as stocks remain balanced.

Corn followed wheat higher, gaining 3 to 5 1/2 cents across most contracts. USDA reported a strong 2.07 MMT in weekly export sales, nearly double the previous week and 25.5% above last year’s level. Japan, South Korea, and Colombia were key buyers, reinforcing solid demand momentum.

Brazilian supply adjustments provided mixed signals for corn. CONAB trimmed its corn crop estimate by 0.42 MMT to 138.45 MMT, reducing the second crop outlook by 1.2 MMT. While modest, the cut offered underlying support amid broader expectations of comfortable global supply.

Ethanol dynamics also influenced corn trade. U.S. ethanol production rebounded to 1.11 million barrels per day, exceeding expectations, though stocks rose to 25.247 million barrels. Strong processing rates support corn demand, but rising inventories temper bullish enthusiasm.

Soybeans posted front-month gains of 11 to 13 1/4 cents, supported by spillover strength and renewed trade optimism. USDA confirmed a private export sale of 108,000 MT to Egypt, while weekly export sales totaled 281,798 MT, a marketing-year low but sharply above last year’s comparable week. China accounted for 286,100 MT, including switches from unknown destinations.

South American production updates kept oilseed trade balanced. CONAB raised Brazil’s soybean estimate to 177.98 MMT, while Argentina’s crop was pegged at 48.5 MMT with crop ratings declining. Weather forecasts indicate developing dryness in March, which may allow smoother transition from soybean harvest to second-crop planting, though soil moisture deficits persist.

Vegetable oil markets presented a mixed backdrop. Soymeal futures gained $4 to $4.70, while soy oil slipped 40 to 47 points. Indonesia’s pause in biodiesel expansion and expectations for rising palm oil production limit short-term upside, though medium-term fundamentals remain constructive.

Biofuel policy headlines added another layer of uncertainty. A U.S. congressional proposal to allow year-round E15 sales could support ethanol blending demand if implemented, though refinery exemption limits and RIN reallocation debates remain unresolved. Markets continue to monitor how policy outcomes may influence grain usage trends.

Crop Futures Wrap

Wheat:
March 2026 CBOT wheat closed at $5.52 1/2, up 15 1/4 cents. Gains were driven by strong export sales, short covering, and cold weather risks in Russia’s winter wheat regions.

Corn:
March 2026 CBOT corn settled at $4.31 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents. Robust weekly export sales and steady ethanol production offset comfortable South American supply outlooks.

Soybeans:
March 2026 CBOT soybeans closed at $11.37 1/4, up 13 1/4 cents. Strength was supported by firm soymeal demand, confirmed export activity, and spillover from wheat’s rally despite higher Brazilian production estimates.