Core Market Drivers

Wheat futures led the downside on Friday, with all three U.S. exchanges finishing lower. Chicago SRW contracts were down 9 to 10 cents, though March remained 19 cents higher on the week. The decline appeared to reflect profit-taking after Thursday’s rally and positioning ahead of the holiday closure.

Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds adding 3,900 contracts to their net short position in CBOT wheat futures and options, bringing the total to 85,655 contracts. In Kansas City wheat, managed money added 10,652 contracts to their net short, increasing bearish exposure to 19,496 contracts, which weighed on sentiment.

Despite Friday’s pullback, wheat export fundamentals remain supportive. USDA data shows total export commitments at 22.467 MMT, up 16% from last year and reaching 92% of USDA’s full-year projection, closely aligned with the historical 93% pace. Recent purchases by South Korean mills of 50,000 MT of U.S. wheat reinforced ongoing demand.

Global production outlooks provided mixed signals. IKAR raised its estimate of Russia’s 2026 wheat crop to 91 MMT, up 3 MMT from its prior forecast, suggesting improved Black Sea supply potential. Meanwhile, FranceAgriMer rated 91% of France’s soft wheat crop in good or excellent condition, well above last year’s level, reducing near-term supply risk.

Corn futures managed fractional gains on Friday, with March closing 1/2 cent higher and ending the week up 1 1/2 cents. Managed money trimmed 20,576 contracts from its net short position, reducing bearish exposure to 48,210 contracts, which provided underlying support.

Corn export commitments stand at 60.805 MMT, 31% above last year and matching the average export pace at 73% of USDA’s annual target. Japan led purchases for the week, highlighting sustained demand even as South American competition intensifies.

Soybeans closed 2 to 4 1/2 cents lower, though March still posted a weekly gain of 17 3/4 cents. Managed money expanded its net long position by 94,316 contracts to 123,148 contracts, indicating strong speculative confidence in the oilseed complex.

However, export commitments remain a relative weakness for soybeans. USDA data shows commitments at 34.572 MMT, down 20% from last year and reaching 81% of USDA’s projection, below the five-year average pace of 89%. Traders are now looking ahead to Tuesday’s NOPA crush report, with expectations for 218.5 mbu in January processing.

South American fundamentals continue to influence soybean and corn trade. Brazil’s soybean production estimate was raised to 177.99 MMT by CONAB, confirming record output, while Argentina’s soybean crop is forecast at 48.5 MMT, with rainfall needed to stabilize conditions. Heavy rains in Brazil are aiding late soybean development but complicating logistics and safrinha planting.

In the broader commodity landscape, Chinese buyers have significantly increased purchases of U.S. sorghum and Australian barley amid tight domestic corn supplies, potentially limiting alternative feed grain substitution pressure on corn. Meanwhile, Brazilian beef exports to China remain strong, though new import quotas may alter trade flows later in the year.

Mississippi River grain shipments rose to 266,000 tons for the week ending February 7, up from 189,000 tons the prior week, while barge rates declined. Improved logistics conditions provide a supportive backdrop for U.S. export competitiveness heading into late winter.

Crop Futures Wrap

Wheat:
March 2026 CBOT wheat closed at $5.48 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents. Losses reflected profit-taking and increased fund short positioning despite strong export commitments and solid global demand signals.

Corn:
March 2026 CBOT corn settled at $4.31 3/4, up 1/2 cent. Steady export commitments and reduced fund shorts supported prices into the weekend.

Soybeans:
March 2026 CBOT soybeans closed at $11.33, down 4 1/4 cents. Weak export pace and position adjustment weighed on Friday trade, though strong fund long positioning kept weekly gains intact.