Chicago and global trade flows dominated markets this week as USDA’s monthly WASDE and a string of strong export inspections recalibrated positioning. Weather patterns across the U.S. Plains and South America, together with shifting vegetable-oil dynamics and fund flows, defined the main directional forces for wheat, corn and soybeans going into the long holiday weekend.

Grain markets began the week focused on the USDA’s February WASDE, which delivered a mixed but market-moving set of changes — notably a 100 mbu cut to U.S. corn ending stocks and a small rise in U.S. wheat carryout — that altered risk perceptions across contracts. The corn reduction was driven by stronger export projections, tightening the near-term balance and supporting corn prices, while wheat’s modest U.S. carryout increase was offset by lower global stocks, creating a two-speed dynamic.

Export inspections and weekly sales data kept tanks full of demand momentum. U.S. inspections showed heavy flows — including 1.308 MMT of corn, 1.136 MMT of soybeans and 580,130 MT of wheat — and USDA flash sales (including private soybean and wheat deals) signaled active buying from key destinations such as China, Mexico and the Philippines. Those flows helped underpin corn and soy prices even where production fundamentals grew more comfortable.

Wheat emerged as the week’s standout, driven by a strong short-covering move and renewed weather risk in parts of the Black Sea region. Short covering accelerated after reports of colder-than-expected spells and the week’s export data, lifting SRW and other U.S. classes sharply and forcing funds to reassess net positions — a squeeze that turned modest WASDE adjustments into a much larger price reaction.

South American supply revisions capped some rallies but also injected volatility. CONAB and other regional reports nudged Brazil’s soybean estimate higher while trimming Brazil’s corn outlook modestly; together these updates left soy balances larger but kept export pace strong, and offered mild support to corn as second-crop uncertainties persisted. Seasonal harvest and safrinha planting progress remained critical near-term variables for both crops.

Vegetable-oil and biofuel narratives continued to shape oilseed economics. Malaysian palm oil stock declines and persistent crush demand underpinned soymeal and soy oil flows, while U.S. ethanol production and policy chatter (E15, blending mandates) provided cross-commodity linkages that lent support to corn via the fuel demand channel even as rising ethanol stocks moderated enthusiasm.

Positioning and funds activity influenced the end-of-week tone. Commitment of Traders and open-interest shifts showed funds trimming shorts in corn at times and adding short exposure in wheat earlier in the run-up, amplifying intraday moves and contributing to Friday’s profit-taking in wheat after the mid-week rally. These flows underline how quickly technicals can magnify fundamental stories.

Logistics and river/barge dynamics provided a constructive backdrop for U.S. exports late in the week. Mississippi River shipments rose and barge rates eased, helping U.S. cargo competitiveness as global buyers remained active. That improvement in physical movement reduced one element of risk to near-term export supply chains heading into late winter.

Crop Futures Wrap

Wheat: March 2026 CBOT wheat closed the week at $5.48 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents on Friday but still with a strong weekly gain; export sales, short covering and renewed cold-weather concerns in parts of Russia drove the mid-week rally and left the crop with a bullish technical profile despite profit-taking into the weekend.

Corn: March 2026 CBOT corn settled at $4.31 3/4, up 1/2 cent on Friday, supported through the week by a 100 mbu cut to U.S. ending stocks in WASDE and robust weekly export inspections, while steady South American production estimates and rising ethanol stocks capped larger upside.

Soybeans: March 2026 CBOT soybeans closed at $11.33, down 4 1/4 cents on Friday, after a week in which stronger Brazilian production estimates and heavy export shipping coexisted with confirmed private sales to China and resilient crush margins that preserved the market’s overall demand tone.

Bottom line: the week showed how quickly export flows and positioning can re-rate balances — wheat led on weather and short covering, corn benefitted from tighter U.S. stocks and ethanol demand, and soybeans leaned on export momentum despite larger South American crops. Traders will watch upcoming export-sales prints, CONAB/CONAB-adjacent updates and weather evolution in the Plains and Brazil for the next directional clues.