Wheat is giving back a chunk of its recent surge as Ukraine proposes keeping Black Sea vessels moving, even as traders brace for a potential Trump announcement on a "massive attack" on Iran that keeps energy and war-premium risk elevated across the complex.

Grains open mixed Friday, with wheat down 2 to 7 cents across all three classes after touching fresh contract highs overnight, corn edging lower on spillover pressure, and soybeans holding onto modest gains as the market weighs de-escalation hopes in the Black Sea against an uncertain Middle East backdrop.

Trump's Iran Decision Looms Over the Session

President Trump is expected to make an announcement soon on whether to launch a "massive attack" on Iran, with the US military reportedly having moved additional troops, medics, and weapons to the Middle East in recent weeks, adding to already heightened tension. US military forces have now carried out strikes against Iranian targets for 13 consecutive days. Spot WTI Sept '26 crude oil is down $2.40 per barrel near $89.80, holding within Thursday's range, while RBOB is off $0.09 per gallon and heating oil is down $0.10, a pullback in energy that is weighing most heavily on soybean oil this morning.

Wheat Gives Back Gains as Ukraine Floats a Shipping Proposal

The wheat complex is facing pressure from money coming off the table heading into the weekend following fresh Black Sea headlines. Ukraine has issued a proposal to keep vessels moving through the Black Sea, though there is still no formal agreement between Ukraine and Russia, and that glimmer of a potential de-escalation is enough to trigger profit-taking after wheat's run to multi-year highs. Fading hopes for a quick resolution had driven prices to two-to-three-year highs earlier in the week, and Friday's pullback suggests the market is now testing how durable that rally really is.

Export Sales Show a Split Demand Picture

Thursday's Export Sales data painted a mixed picture across the three crops. Wheat's new-crop accumulated sales stand at 6.68 MMT, down 26% from last year and just 32% of the USDA's export projection, lagging the 37% five-year average pace. Corn told a stronger story, with total commitments reaching 86.613 MMT, 103% of the USDA's export projection and ahead of the 101% pace from the last three years, while new-crop sales of 7.56 MMT are running 12.5% ahead of last year. Soybean old-crop export business has reached 41.38 MMT, 100% of the USDA's projection but still lagging the 101% pace of the last three years, even as new-crop sales of 6.136 MMT are running 135.5% above the same week last year.

Spring Wheat Tour Wraps Up With Above-Average Yields

The annual spring wheat tour concluded Thursday with a final average yield estimate of 48 bushels per acre, below last year's 49.0 bpa but still above the 45.8 bpa five-year average. The USDA is currently forecasting an average yield of 58 bushels per acre, just below the 2024 record of 59, keeping the broader spring wheat supply outlook comparatively stable even as the tour's regional readings came in mixed.

Russian and French Wheat Estimates Firm Up

IKAR estimates the Russian wheat crop at 90 MMT in its latest projection, with 2026/27 exports seen at 44.5 MMT, while FranceAgriMer's latest update pegs the French wheat crop at 65% good-to-excellent with harvest 99% complete. Both data points suggest a relatively stable supply picture out of two of the world's largest wheat origins, a contrast to the acute freight and shipping disruption that has been driving the market's recent volatility.

US Weather Turns Hotter Into the Weekend

Scattered rain fell across the Western Corn Belt over the past 24 hours, with isolated heavy amounts in central Kansas, but much-above-normal temperatures are expected to expand across the Plains and Western Corn Belt this weekend and hold into early August. The northern Midwest and Eastern Corn Belt will build to above-normal readings by early next week, though the week-two outlook shows a return to more normal temperatures; normal-to-below-normal precipitation across much of the nation's midsection through the first week of August means crop stress will keep rising across the Western Corn Belt. Western Europe remains hot and dry, heat is expanding into Eastern Europe with scattered precipitation, and dryness in west-central Brazil continues to support corn harvest even as southern Argentina sees scattered showers and southern Brazil gets moderate-to-heavy rain.

Corn Watches Cattle on Feed and a Brazilian Ethanol Legal Challenge

Today's Cattle on Feed report is expected to show inventories at 102.2% of a year ago at 11.372 million head, a demand signal worth watching for the corn and feed complex. Argentina's BAGE reports corn harvest has reached 67% while holding its production forecast at 64 MMT, above the USDA's 63 MMT estimate, and in Brazil, the Federal Prosecution Service has filed a lawsuit against the federal government seeking to suspend the mandated 2-percentage-point increase in ethanol blended into gasoline, which would take the required level to 32%. Threatening US weather combined with hopes for renewed Chinese demand continue to keep corn's path of least resistance higher, with Thursday's speculative buying pushing the managed-money long position back up to roughly 105,000 contracts and open interest rising more than 16,000 contracts.

Soybeans Hold Firm on China Demand and Tight Yield Margins

US Gulf FOB soybean offers remain $0.10 above Brazilian offers for spot shipment while holding even for Sept '26 forward, and continued demand interest from China and other buyers, layered onto the uncertain Western Corn Belt weather outlook, is expected to keep the path of least resistance to the upside. The market continues to have little wiggle room for US yields slipping below the current 53-bushel-per-acre trendline forecast, and the combined speculative long position across the soybean complex is approaching 300,000 contracts, still well below the May-26 record of just over 501,000; Thursday's open interest rose 13,700 contracts in beans and just over 500 in oil while falling 1,000 in meal. In South America, Argentina's BAGE reports plantings have reached 98% of the season's total.

Wheat: Profit-Taking Follows a Run to New Contract Highs

CGO Sept '26 opens $0.04 1/2 lower at $6.91 3/4 after trading to a new contract high overnight, KC Sept '26 is $0.04 lower at $7.56, also stretching to a new contract high overnight, and MIAX Sept '26 is $0.07 lower at $7.23, following a Thursday session that saw Sept '26 CBOT wheat trade at $6.76 1/4, down 20 cents, with Chicago SRW down 18 to 20 cents, KC HRW off 17 to 18 cents, and MPLS spring wheat down 17 to 18 cents at midday. Ukraine's proposal to keep Black Sea vessels moving, even without a formal agreement in place, is driving profit-taking after the recent surge, though a close below $6.93 on CGO Sept '26 would mark a key reversal day worth watching into next week.

Corn: Fresh Highs Overnight, Fading Into the Open

Sept '26 corn opens $0.02 1/2 lower at $4.61 1/2 while Dec '26 is $0.02 lower at $4.85 1/2, both having traded to fresh eight-week highs overnight before pulling back, extending Thursday's session that saw Sept '26 corn trade at $4.62 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents, on spillover pressure from wheat's sharp midday losses. Threatening US weather and hopes for renewed Chinese demand are still keeping the path of least resistance higher over time, even as today's session opens on the defensive alongside wheat.

Soybeans: Nov '26 Extends Its Run to a New Contract High

Aug '26 opens $0.03 higher at $12.40 1/2 while Nov '26 is $0.01 1/2 higher at $12.45 1/4, with Nov '26 marking a new contract high and Aug '26 coming within half a cent of its own, building on Thursday's session that saw Aug '26 trade at $12.48 1/4, up 10 3/4 cents. Continued Chinese demand interest and a supportive Gulf FOB spread are keeping the path of least resistance to the upside, with next significant resistance for old crop at $12.58 1/4, the May-24 high on the weekly continuation chart.