Fresh attacks on Black Sea infrastructure keep wheat supported, while corn retreats after a larger US crop estimate and soybeans balance stronger production against firm Chinese demand.
Grain markets are mixed Thursday morning following Wednesday’s sharp speculative buying and the release of USDA Crop Production and WASDE data. Wheat remains the strongest part of the complex as Black Sea disruptions intensify, while corn gives back part of Wednesday’s move and soybeans hold near unchanged as traders turn their attention to export sales and global demand.
Black Sea Escalation Keeps a Risk Premium in Wheat
Supply concerns remain concentrated around the Black Sea after Ukrainian drone strikes left at least two major grain terminals at Russia’s Novorossiysk port inoperable. Russia subsequently attacked Ukrainian military and port infrastructure at the Danube ports of Reni and Izmail, reinforcing uncertainty around regional grain flows. The disruption is supportive for wheat because any sustained limitation on Russian or Ukrainian export capacity could shift demand toward alternative origins.
Russia’s agriculture minister has indicated that alternative routes are being considered for agricultural exports, but the immediate market focus remains on the loss of normal port capacity. With wheat already supported by short covering and strong gains in the previous session, continued logistical uncertainty is keeping buyers active early Thursday.
USDA Wheat Cuts Offer Support, but Global Stocks Rise
NASS estimated 2026 US wheat production at 1.531 bbu, down 5 mbu from July. Winter wheat was unchanged at 990 mbu, while HRW production fell 8 mbu to 463 mbu and spring wheat declined only 1 mbu to 474 mbu. US 2026/27 ending stocks were reduced by 5 mbu to 717 mbu, providing a modest supportive domestic signal.
The global balance was less bullish. World wheat ending stocks increased by 0.41 MMT to 273.25 MMT as higher estimates for Canada and Ukraine offset a 1.8 MMT reduction for the EU. USDA also cut Russian exports by 1.5 MMT and Ukrainian exports by 0.5 MMT, leaving wheat supported by regional supply risk but capped by a still-comfortable global stock outlook.
Corn Retreats After Larger US Production Estimate
Corn is under pressure Thursday morning following USDA’s larger-than-expected US crop estimate. NASS pegged yield at 180.7 bpa, while planted acreage was raised by 1.4 million acres to 96.7 million and harvested acreage increased by 1.2 million to 88.6 million acres. Production reached 16.013 bbu, 13 mbu above the July WASDE figure and nearly 80 mbu above market expectations.
That larger production estimate is bearish for nearby corn, even though the balance sheet contains some supportive demand adjustments. Old-crop ending stocks were reduced by 75 mbu to 1.945 bbu on stronger exports, while new-crop stocks fell to 1.653 bbu due to lower carryover and increased export potential. The result is a mixed fundamental picture: greater production weighs on prices, while tighter projected stocks prevent the supply increase from becoming fully bearish.
South American Corn Supply Adds Competition
South American production remains another source of pressure for corn. USDA raised Brazil’s 2025/26 crop by 2 MMT to 140 MMT, while CONAB lifted its estimate to 142.96 MMT, largely through a stronger second-crop estimate of 111.03 MMT. The Rosario Grains Exchange also raised its Argentine forecast by 2.5 MMT to 70.5 MMT, although USDA left Argentina unchanged at 63 MMT.
Higher South American availability increases competition for US corn exports and limits upside potential. At the same time, US ethanol production improved to 1.117 million barrels per day in the week of August 7, providing a supportive domestic demand signal, although ethanol stocks also increased to 24.798 million barrels.
Soybean Production Increases, but Stocks Remain Manageable
US soybean production was revised higher after NASS raised both acreage and output. Yield was estimated at 52.7 bpa, planted acreage increased by 1.4 million acres to 86.8 million and harvested acreage reached 85.8 million acres. Production was estimated at 4.519 bbu, 44 mbu above the July WASDE projection.
The higher crop is moderately bearish, but the stocks picture remains relatively balanced. Old-crop ending stocks were cut by 5 mbu to 325 mbu on increased crush demand, while new-crop stocks rose 10 mbu to 320 mbu. World 2026/27 ending stocks increased only marginally to 124.21 MMT, limiting the bearish impact of the larger US production estimate.
Chinese Demand Continues to Support Soybeans
Export demand remains one of the strongest supportive elements for soybeans. USDA reported a private sale of 224,000 MT of soybeans to China for 2026/27 shipment, while US Gulf FOB offers are reported at $0.30–$0.45/bu below Brazilian offers extending through year-end. This price advantage supports the competitiveness of US origin and helps offset pressure from the larger domestic crop estimate.
China remains active ahead of anticipated future demand, while Sinograin recently sold 461,000 MT of the 516,000 MT of imported soybeans offered at auction. Traders will now focus on weekly export sales, with new-crop soybean sales expected between 1.5 and 1.9 MMT. Stronger-than-expected bookings would reinforce the demand side of the soybean balance.
Weather Remains Mixed Across Key Growing Regions
Heavy rain and powerful storms continue around the high-pressure ridge over the southern Plains, with that pattern expected to persist into early next week. Hot and dry conditions remain across the southwestern Corn Belt, southern Plains and Delta, accelerating crop maturity but maintaining some regional stress. The mixed US weather pattern limits a clear directional signal for corn and soybeans.
South America also remains mixed, with seasonally cool conditions and rainfall across northern Argentina and southern Brazil, while central and northern Brazil stay warm and dry. Europe remains hot, with improving rainfall prospects likely arriving too late to materially benefit France’s corn crop, adding some support to European feed grain markets.
Lower Crude and a Softer Dollar Pull Macro Signals in Opposite Directions
Energy markets are weaker Thursday morning despite stalled discussions around reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Spot WTI crude is down $1.75 near $81.50/barrel, RBOB is $0.01 lower and heating oil is down $0.05 per gallon. Weaker energy prices are a mild negative for agricultural commodities, particularly crops linked to biofuel demand.
The US dollar is slightly lower in two-sided trade ahead of today’s PPI release after Wednesday’s CPI data came in line with expectations. A softer dollar is supportive for US export competitiveness, while US equity markets are modestly higher. These macro influences remain secondary to Black Sea developments, export demand and the market’s continued digestion of USDA’s new supply estimates.
Wheat: Black Sea Risk Keeps Futures Firm
September 2026 Chicago wheat is up $0.03 3/4 at $6.56 1/2/bu, September Kansas City wheat is up $0.04 3/4 at $7.25 1/2, while September MIAX wheat is $0.04 higher at $6.77. Prices remain supported by escalating Black Sea disruptions, reduced Russian and Ukrainian export expectations and a lower US production estimate. USDA’s relatively measured 2.5 MMT combined reduction to Russian and Ukrainian exports, however, prevents the global balance from becoming significantly tighter.
Corn: Larger US Crop Pressures Thursday Trade
September 2026 corn is $0.04 lower at $4.53/bu, while December 2026 corn is also $0.04 lower at $4.76 3/4. December futures remain above support at the 100-day moving average of $4.71 3/4, with resistance at the July high of $4.92. The larger-than-expected US production estimate and stronger South American crop outlook are weighing on prices, while lower projected US ending stocks and export demand provide underlying support.
Soybeans: Chinese Demand Helps Absorb Larger US Supply
September 2026 soybeans are $0.02 higher at $11.67 1/4/bu, while November 2026 soybeans are $0.01 higher at $11.84 1/4. September soybean meal is up $1.30 at $309.80, while soybean oil is steady at 69.16 and crush margins are little changed at $2.75 1/2/bu. A larger US crop and expectations for substantial Brazilian production limit upside, but competitive US Gulf offers and continued Chinese purchasing are keeping soybean futures supported early Thursday.