Corn, soybeans and most wheat contracts open firmer after another round of multi-month lows, but routine demand, new speculative shorts and competitive South American supply continue to cap the recovery.
US agricultural markets begin Wednesday, October 28, mostly higher as grains attempt to rebound from increasingly oversold conditions. Dec ’26 corn is recovering after four consecutive lower closes, Nov ’26 soybeans are holding close to their 100-day moving average, and Chicago and Kansas City wheat are bouncing after all three US wheat classes reached fresh three- to four-month lows overnight. The recovery remains fragile, however, as speculative selling continues and demand has yet to strengthen enough to materially change the broader trend.
Speculative Selling Continues to Dominate Corn
Dec ’26 corn is starting the session firmer after closing lower in four consecutive sessions and 10 of the past 11. Managed money sold another 12,000 contracts on Tuesday, reducing the estimated long position to 126,000 contracts. At the same time, open interest increased by around 19,000 contracts, indicating that fresh short positions are entering the market rather than the decline being driven only by liquidation of existing longs.
This positioning keeps the market vulnerable despite increasingly oversold conditions. Until demand improves or a more threatening South American weather pattern develops, the prevailing directional pressure remains lower.
US Corn Harvest Still Lags, but Supply Pressure Remains Heavy
The US corn harvest reached 60% complete as of October 25, six percentage points behind the average pace. Crop ratings ended the season at 56% good to excellent.
Rainfall of 1–2 inches is forecast from east of the Rockies toward the Appalachians, with the heaviest totals along the Missouri River through South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas and Missouri. This may slow remaining fieldwork in some areas, but the broader market continues to focus on the volume of harvest supply already entering the pipeline.
EU corn imports provide a stronger demand signal. Imports through October 25 reached 7.11 MMT, up 36% year on year. EIA data later in the session are expected to show US ethanol production rising to 324 million gallons, from 322 million the previous week.
Argentina Adds Another Bearish Supply Signal
South American supply expectations remain an important restraint on corn prices. The USDA agricultural attaché in Argentina estimates the 2026/27 corn crop at 62 MMT, well above the official USDA estimate of 55 MMT.
Brazilian export expectations have been trimmed, however. ANEC now estimates October corn exports at 6.1 MMT, down from its previous estimate of 6.87 MMT. That would still be 17% above September, but 6.16% below last year.
The combination remains mixed: larger Argentine production expectations are bearish, while slightly weaker Brazilian export projections reduce some regional supply pressure.
Soybeans Stabilize Near Technical Support
Nov ’26 soybeans are attempting a modest recovery after Tuesday’s 12-cent decline. The contract is trading very close to its 100-day moving average, making the current area an important technical test.
Open interest declined by 6,473 contracts on Tuesday, mainly because of a sharp reduction in November positions ahead of first notice day. This follows the broader liquidation seen across the soybean complex during recent sessions.
Chinese purchases of US soybeans are estimated at 18–19 MMT, but the demand picture is not strong enough to drive a sustained rebound while South American planting progresses and speculative exposure continues to fall.
Sinograin Auctions Keep China in Focus
Sinograin sold 172,240 MT of the 512,000 MT offered at Tuesday’s reserve auction, roughly one-third of the available volume. Another 402,000 MT of imported soybeans is scheduled to be offered on November 3.
The limited sale at the latest auction suggests Chinese reserve demand has not absorbed the full available volume. At the same time, estimated Chinese purchases of US beans remain substantial, leaving the demand picture supportive but not strong enough to offset the competitive pressure from South America.
EU soybean imports through October 25 are 3.79 MMT, roughly unchanged from last year, while soybean meal imports are down 15% at 5.65 MMT.
Brazil Planting Progress Provides Little Weather Premium
Soybean planting in Paraná, Brazil’s second-largest producing state, is 62% complete, behind last year’s 71% pace. However, the broader weather outlook does not currently provide a major bullish threat.
Scattered rain and above-normal temperatures are expected to benefit planting in Argentina. Heavy rainfall in southern interior Brazil may create some flooding risk, while scattered showers in west-central growing areas are viewed as welcome.
The absence of a major South American supply disruption continues to reduce the need for a weather premium in US futures.
Wheat Rebounds From Fresh Multi-Month Lows
Chicago and Kansas City wheat are firmer this morning after all three US classes reached fresh three- to four-month lows overnight. The market remains under pressure from expectations for progress in Black Sea peace talks and from the continuing need to find a price level capable of attracting stronger demand.
Trilateral talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine are scheduled for November 10, although fighting continues. This keeps the wheat market caught between a declining geopolitical risk premium and unresolved physical risk.
Wheat Supply Outside the US Remains Comfortable
Australian wheat production is estimated at 32 MMT, 1 MMT above the official USDA number, while Argentina is estimated at 23 MMT, 1.5 MMT above official USDA data.
EU wheat exports from July 1 through October 25 reached 9.21 MMT, only 0.07 MMT above last year. The lowest reported offer in Tunisia’s 100,000 MT wheat tender is just under $297/MT CF, with no confirmed purchase reported in the source.
US winter wheat planting reached 76%, only one percentage point behind the five-year average, with emergence at 53%. This near-normal planting pace limits the amount of weather premium currently available to the US wheat market.
Macro Markets Offer Limited Direction
Dec ’26 WTI crude oil is up $1.70/barrel at $101.60, while the US dollar is little changed after reaching a two-week high. Agricultural markets are therefore receiving little direct help from currencies, while energy provides modest support.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is up $0.02 at $6.12 1/4/bu. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is up $0.03 at $6.53 1/2/bu, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is down $0.01 at $6.27 1/2/bu. All three classes reached fresh three- to four-month lows overnight before recovering. Black Sea peace expectations and subdued demand continue to cap the upside.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is up $0.03 at $4.51 3/4/bu. The rebound follows four consecutive lower closes and losses in 10 of the past 11 sessions. Fresh short selling, a large Argentine production estimate and routine demand keep the underlying bias bearish despite the oversold condition.
Soybean Futures
Nov ’26 soybeans are up $0.04 at $12.33 1/4/bu. Dec ’26 soybean meal is up $0.80 at $335.40, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is down 21 points at 66.50. Soybeans are trading close to their 100-day moving average, while meal remains just above 100-day moving-average support at $333.50. Chinese purchases offer underlying support, but reduced speculative exposure and the absence of major South American weather problems limit the recovery.