The grain complex opens mostly lower as soybean longs continue to exit, corn consolidates near $4.50, and improving Black Sea navigation prospects keep wheat under pressure despite fresh multi-month lows.
US agricultural markets begin Thursday, October 29, with a mostly weaker tone. Soybeans are the clear downside leader as speculative traders continue to reduce long exposure, while corn is little changed near recent lows and wheat remains under pressure from expectations of improving Black Sea access and peace prospects. Export sales data due this morning are the main near-term demand catalyst across all three crops.
Soybean Liquidation Remains the Main Bearish Force
Nov ’26 soybeans are trading at a fresh two-month low as long liquidation continues across the complex. The contract is down sharply again this morning, while open interest fell by 26,149 contracts on Wednesday, showing that traders are still exiting positions ahead of Friday’s first notice day for November.
The broader speculative position remains historically large despite the recent reduction. Managed money is estimated to hold a combined net-long position of nearly 450,000 contracts across the soybean complex, down from a recent record of 558,000. This leaves the market exposed to further liquidation if demand fails to surprise positively.
Chinese Demand Provides Support, but Not Enough to Reverse the Trend
Chinese purchases of US soybeans are estimated at 18–19 MMT, which continues to provide a meaningful underlying demand base. However, this support has not been strong enough to offset fund selling and the broader competitive pressure from South America.
Sinograin sold only 172,240 MT of the 512,000 MT offered earlier this week, roughly one-third of the available volume. Another 402,000 MT of imported soybeans is scheduled to be auctioned on November 3.
Weekly US soybean export sales are expected in a range of 1.8–3 MMT for the week ending October 22, including 1.323 MMT already announced through daily sales. Meal sales are expected at 200,000–450,000 MT and soybean oil at 0–10,000 MT.
Soybean Technical Support Is Under Pressure
Nov ’26 soybeans have fallen to $12.15 1/2/bu, a fresh two-month low. Dec ’26 soybean meal is holding close to its 100-day moving-average support, while soybean oil is trading near its June low and the 38% Fibonacci retracement support area.
Crush margins have weakened again to $2.30/bu, adding another soft signal to the soybean complex. The market therefore remains technically vulnerable even though Chinese demand continues to provide a fundamental floor.
Corn Consolidates Around $4.50
Dec ’26 corn is holding near $4.50/bu after Wednesday’s modest rebound. The contract is steady in early trade at $4.51 3/4, while speculative traders were net buyers of approximately 3,000 contracts on Wednesday. Open interest nevertheless surged by around 29,000 contracts, indicating continued active positioning around current levels.
The consolidation follows a prolonged decline, and the market still lacks a stronger demand catalyst. The current bias therefore remains defensive unless US demand improves or South American weather becomes more threatening.
Ethanol Demand Improves
The strongest fresh demand signal for corn comes from ethanol. US production increased to 329 million gallons, up from 322 million the previous week and 2.5% above last year. Production was above the pace needed to reach the USDA corn usage forecast for the first time in six weeks.
Firm production margins are being supported by relatively high energy prices while corn and natural gas values have declined. This provides some demand support to corn, although it has not yet been enough to reverse the broader bearish trend.
Weekly corn export sales are expected at 0.8–1.6 MMT, equivalent to roughly 40–65 million bushels in the Morning Outlook.
Black Sea Developments Keep Wheat Under Pressure
The most important wheat development is the reported reopening of the Kerch Strait to grain vessels. At least one vessel has reportedly passed safely into the Black Sea, with ships accompanied by Russian naval vessels.
The development reinforces expectations for improved Black Sea navigation at a time when prospects for peace have already reduced geopolitical risk premiums. Chicago and Kansas City wheat both fell to fresh three- to four-month lows on Wednesday, while Minneapolis set a new contract low.
The market still faces physical uncertainty, but the ability of vessels to move through the Kerch Strait reduces part of the immediate logistical premium.
Wheat Demand Still Needs to Improve
US wheat continues to search for a price level capable of attracting stronger demand. Weekly export sales are expected between 200,000 and 500,000 MT for old-crop wheat, while 2027/28 sales are expected at 0–50,000 MT.
Speculative positioning also remains heavily bearish. The managed-money short position in Chicago wheat is estimated to be approaching 70,000 contracts after Wednesday’s trade.
A South Korean importer also tendered for 138,000 MT of wheat, with offers due Thursday, providing a potential demand event to monitor.
Rain Brings Mixed Implications for US Crops
NOAA’s seven-day forecast shows 1–2 inches of precipitation across the Plains and into parts of SRW wheat country. For winter wheat, this moisture may support crop establishment, although it could locally slow remaining field activity.
Across the Midwest, widespread heavy precipitation is expected from early to mid-next week. This may delay remaining corn and soybean harvest activity, although much of the crop is already harvested.
In South America, scattered rain and above-normal temperatures are expected to benefit planting in Argentina. Southern interior Brazil faces some flooding risk, while scattered showers are expected in west-central growing areas.
Macro Markets Offer Little Support
Dec ’26 WTI crude oil is down $0.90/barrel at $101.90, while RBOB is down $0.03/gallon and heating oil is off $0.09. The US dollar is slightly lower after the Federal Reserve held rates steady, but remains within Wednesday’s range.
The macro backdrop is therefore mixed, leaving crop-specific fundamentals and export demand as the primary drivers.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is up $0.01 at $6.00/bu. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is unchanged at $6.43/bu, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is down $0.00 1/2 at $6.19 1/4/bu. Chicago and Kansas City reached fresh three- to four-month lows on Wednesday, while Minneapolis set a new contract low. Improved Black Sea navigation prospects and a growing speculative short position continue to limit upside.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is steady at $4.51 3/4/bu. Prices are consolidating around $4.50 after Wednesday’s bounce. Stronger ethanol production provides some support, but the market still needs better export demand or a more threatening South American forecast to change the broader bearish bias.
Soybean Futures
Nov ’26 soybeans are down $0.09 at $12.15 1/2/bu. Dec ’26 soybean meal is down $1.60 at $334.10, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is down 83 points at 64.73. Soybeans are at a fresh two-month low, meal remains near its 100-day moving-average support, and soybean oil is close to its June low and 38% Fibonacci retracement support. Heavy speculative liquidation remains the main bearish influence despite Chinese purchases of 18–19 MMT.