On Wednesday the soybean price in Chicago rose, the wheat remained stable, and the corn went down. In Paris crop prices went down with the exception of the May wheat contract that went up.

EUR / USD index fell to 1.0896.WTI crude oil rose to 47.75 USD / barrel.

Crude oil prices stabilized on Wednesday after a decline of over 2% during the Asian trade. On Tuesday evening the US Petroleum Institute announced that the oil reserves in the US surprisingly fell by 4.16 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks also unexpectedly recorded a decline of 1.93 million barrels, while for the distilled products the decrease was 440 thousand barrels per day. Oil production in Russia fell to 11 million barrels per day last month, close to the target level under the OPEC deal, showed the information from the energy ministry on Tuesday. Meanwhile Libya is contributing to oversupply after renewing its production which rose at more than 760,000 barrels per day - the highest level since 2014.

Market attention continues to be focused on the damages on the wheat in Kansas  after the weekend snowing. There will be damage but how serious will they be? Definitely the prospects for high yield are dimmed. This, against the backdrop of the little areas cropped with wheat in the United States and the slow sowing of the spring wheat is apparently disturbing and the crop forecast of 50 million tonnes of wheat in the country in 2017 will hardly be supported. On the second day of the Kansas tour, an average crop yield of 43 bushels / acre is forecasted, which is much under the initial expectations of over 48 bushels / acre, 47.1 bushels / acre last year and 42.7 bushels / acre on average basis for the years. Some analysts predict that wheat crops in Kansas will drop to 6.8 million tonnes compared to 12.7 million tonnes last year and an average of 9.38 million tonnes in the recent years. This is under the condition that there is sufficient moisture during the growing season for restoration of the crops. There are other options that are being discussed - whether it would be profitable to replace wheat crops with spring culture (depending on insurers) and whether the weather will allow this to happen. The market however, is still hoping for a good crop of wheat and the prices do not move significantly up. The reason for this is also the competitors from the Black Sea region and Australia.

In the coming days in the Midwest of the United States temperatures will be below the normal but without precipitation. This will trouble the corn growing. The optimal deadline for completing corn sowing in the US is May 10th, but it will obviously be omitted due to the soil moisture. The weather in Canada is cold and humid also, where the growing of the canola is stopped and not only its.

Because of the the snow in the US we stopped talking about the drought in Western Europe. In France the necessary rainfall did not fall. Such are expected in the coming days but let’s see the quantity.

There are quite a lot of problems so far, but the result for the crops is still unknown.

With the rise in the price of the Australian wheat over the past week, Asian buyers' interest in new purchases is declining. The Australian standard white wheat (ASW ) with protein 9% is now offered at a price of 219 - 221 USD / tonne C & F Indonesia with delivery August -September. This is 7 - 9 USD / ton more than for the previous week. The price of Australian wheat rose on Tuesday after the massive demand for contracts with July-July delivery. Impact on the price increase rendered the retention of sales by the farmers. According to traders, the countries of the Black Sea region will be able to offer competitive prices. Now Black sea wheat with protein 11.5% is offered at prices 197 to 198 USD / tonne C & F, which is much under the level of the Australian wheat. Even the soft wheat from the US is now 13 to 15 USD / ton cheaper than the Australian. Yesterday however, the market has reacted and wheat prices in Australia have fallen sharply.

From April 22nd to 28th, 538,700 tonnes of grain were exported from Ukrainian seaports compared to corn and 60 500 tonnes of barley have been exported. During the period 1.10.2016 - 01.05.217 from Ukraine have exported 15,018 million tonnes of corn, which is 10.8% more than last year. By the end of the season the export potential was 3.482 million tonnes, which is 26.7% more than for the previous year. From the beginning of 2016 - 2017 until 3.05.2017 from Ukraine have been exported 37.204 million tonnes of grain. 15.8 million tonnes of wheat, 5.13 million tonnes of barley and 16 million tonnes of corn have been exported. 302,900 tonnes of flour were also exported. Throughout the period 2015 - 2016 from Ukraine have been exported 39.487 million tonnes of grain, which is 13.5% more than for the previous season. In the current economic year, exports are expected to reach about 40 million tonnes.

According to preliminary data, in April 2017 from Russia have been exported 2.6 million tonnes of grain compared to 3.39 million tonnes in March 2017 and 2.28 million tonnes in April 2016, according to information from Rusagrotrans. In April 2017, 2.0 - 2.1 million tonnes of wheat (1.42 million tonnes in April 2016), 250 000 tonnes of barley (207 000), around 350 000 tonnes of corn (616 000) were exported from the country. Preliminary requests for grain exports through deep-sea ports in May were 821,000 tonnes compared to 730,000 tonnes in May 2016. In the current month the total grain exports from Russia will reach 2.0-2.2 million tonnes to 1.77 million tonnes for May 2016. From the beginning of the season until 26.04.2017 Russia has exported almost 30.5 million tonnes of grain. From April 1st to 26th exports reached 921,000 tonnes.

The authorities in China are starting auctions for sale of corn from the state reserve. On 05.05.2017 there will be offered 2.51 million tonnes of corn from crop 2012 - 2013. Now in the state fund there are 230 million tonnes of corn available from different crops . Corn prices in China have fallen and this has reduced the need for imports due to economic reasons. In April only 5,262 tonnes of corn was imported into the country, which is the lowest level since September 2013 until now. Authorities predict that corn imports into China during the season will be only 2.0 million tonnes, which is the lowest level for the past six years.

The Brazilian soybean crop has been already harvested - 110 million tonnes, but farmers have almost no interest to sell at the current prices that are moving around the bottom. The result is full warehouses, lack of soybeans for processing in the country and a strong interest in buying soybean from the US. Last week sales reached 808,000 tonnes, which is an extremely high level for this time of year. There are also concerns about the free storage facilities for storage of the second crop of corn which is to be harvested. Certainly large quantities of corn will remain in the open and will therefore increase the possibility for big losses from storage.

Wheat price – Yesterday wheat futures in Chicago remained stable. The results of the tour for estimation of the wheat in the western parts of Kansas are 32.8 bushels / acre average yield, which is very low. This was the most affected by the snowfall and low temperatures area. Export sales of US wheat are expected to range from 0-150 000 tonnes for the old crop + 200 000-400 000 tonnes of new crop. Informa estimates US winter wheat crops at 36.07 million tonnes at a previous forecast of 34.95 million tonnes. Apparently this is a forecast made before the snow in Kansas. We expect the statistics from Canada to be available on Friday. Stocks of wheat in Canada are now expected to be estimated at 18.121 million tonnes compared to 13.792 million tonnes last year.

Soybean price – Yesterday soybean futures in Chicago rose by 4.75 - 7.5 cents / bushel. Export sales of US soybeans are expected at 300 000 - 500 000 tonnes + 100 to 300 000 tonnes. Sales of soybean meal will be 50,000-250,000 tonnes and soybean oil 0-32,000 tonnes. INTL FCStone estimates the Brazilian soybean crop at 111.8 million tonnes for 2016-2017. The soybean crop in Argentina is estimated at 56.8 million tonnes and in Brazil 113 million tonnes by Informa. Canola reserves in Canada are expected to be 6,211 million tonnes.

Corn price – Yesterday, corn  futures in Chicago went down by 1.75 - 2.5 cents / bushel. For the week ending on 28.04.2017 ethanol production in the US dropped by 1,000 barrels per day to 986,000 barrels per day. Ethanol stocks for the week dropped by 56,000 barrels to 23,213 million barrels. Weekly export sales of US corn are expected to be between 700,000 and 900,000 tonnes + 0 to 200,000 tonnes. INTL FCStone estimates the second crop of corn in Brazil to be 64.12 million tonnes at 61.28 million tonnes in the previous estimate. Informa increases its forecast for corn crops in Brazil to 96 million tonnes.