In the end of August the markets recovered, but is it for long?

On Thursday crop prices in Chicago rose significantly. In Paris prices also went up.

EUR/USD index rose to 1.1908. WTI crude oil rose to 46.97 USD/barrel.

Prices of WTI crude oil recorded its biggest monthly decline of over a year. There are growing concerns about the declining demand in the United States, which is the world's largest consumer of oil, after the Hurricane Harvey blocked nearly a quarter of the refineries in the country. This amounts to a capacity of 4.4 million barrels per day. Trade oil stocks fell by 5.4 million barrels last week to 457.77 million barrels. This is 14.5% below the record highs reached in March. At the same time, the amount of oil entering refineries rose to 17.73 million barrels per day. That figure, however, is likely to fall drastically this week due to the closed refineries, to about 15-16 million barrels a day, according to JBC Energy.

Still, at the end of August, the markets revived and crop prices showed growth. Exports of all US crops turned out to be good. For corn, the result is almost 1 million tonnes of old and new crops. For wheat 536,000 tonnes, which is 39% more than the previous week. Soybeans sales were 123,000 tonnes + 1.56 million tonnes.
In the Midwest of the United States around 6th September there is a possibility of early frosts and frosting on crops. It is believed that low corn prices will spoil the forecast of areas for culture in the US in 2018, which was forecasted by Farm Futures. US ethanol prices rose by 4% in October, improving the margins for product manufacturers.

Farmers from Ukraine report that their rapeseed yields are excellent. There are concerns about the decline in corn, sunflower and soybeans crops due to the low summer rainfall - the lowest level in the last 6 years. Perhaps the corn crop will fall by 10-15% of the initial expectations.

Important news from Russia:

According to RusAgroTrans forecast, in August, 4.6 to 4.65 million tonnes of grain will be exported from the country, which is only reached in August 2014. The indicator will be 16% more than the export in August 2016 - 4,016 million tonnes. Wheat exports will be 3.85 million tonnes (3.6 million tonnes in August 2016), barley 740,000 tonnes (300,000), corn 30,000 tonnes (22,000). In July, grain exports from Russia reached 2.7 million tonnes at 2.54 million tonnes in July 2016. So far, grain exports in September from deep-sea ports are 2.2 million tonnes, which will not be below those of August.

According to ProZerno August forecast, in 2017 the grain crop in Russia will reach 132.2 million tonnes or 10.7 million tonnes more than in the July forecast. This is a new record for the country. This record was set in 1978 - 127,412 million tonnes. In 2017 - 2018 grain consumption in Russia will be 77.92 million tonnes, initial stocks 21.7 million tonnes and ending stocks 28.54 million tonnes. Grain exports will be 47.8 million tonnes. Wheat exports will be  maximum  35 million tonnes but will actually reach 31-33 million tonnes.

The Canada Bureau of Statistics has announced the following forecasts for crops from different crops in the country:
- Total wheat - 25.541 mln tonnes (-6.188 million tonnes from last year and -0.7 million tonnes below the market expectations).
- Durum wheat - 3.989 million tonnes (-3.864 and -1.0).
- Canola - 18,203 million tonnes (-1,398 and -0.4).
- Corn - 13,645 million tonnes (+0,452 and +0.1).
- Soybeans - 7.743 million tonnes (+1.28 and -0.2).
- Barley - 7,212 million tonnes (-1,572 and +0,2).

Certainly the supply of durum wheat and canola in the world will be tightened. This will not be a dramatic process, but there will still be worries.
Have the prices of the last days been the bottom of the market? Probably yes, but also no. Growth - yes, but weak, anemic. Decline - it depends a lot on what the seasonal demand will be. If it is good for the big crop, the prices will remain stable. So far, demand is good - for all cultures.

 

 CBOT (Chicago)         

  USD/mt

   +/-

Wheat 12.2017

 159.69

 +1.84

Corn 12.2017

 140.78

 +4.80

Soybeans 11.2017

 347.30

 +4.41

Soybeans meal12.2017

 330.03

 +2.20

 EURONEXT (Paris)

 EUR/mt  

  +/-

Wheat 09.2017

 155.75

 +1.25

Corn 11.2017

 159.00

 +0.75

Rapeseed 11.2017

 369.50

 +2.50

Rapeseed meal 12.2017

 189.00

 +1.00

 

Yesterday wheat futures in Chicago rose by 3.5 - 8.5 cents / bushel. In the week August 18th-24th, US export sales of wheat are at the level of 535,965 tonnes for the current season, much above the last year's level and 38.7% more than the previous week. The first sales for 2018 - 2019 were reported - 30,000 tonnes. Wheat exports reached 717,423 tonnes. The largest buyers were Japan, the Philippines and South Africa.

Yesterday corn futures in Chicago rose by 7.25 - 12.75 cents / bushel. Export sales of US corn are 188,368 tonnes of old crop + 804,167 tonnes of new crop, which is above the expectations and 34.2% more than last year. The largest buyers were an unknown buyer, China, Japan, Mexico and Guatemala. The export of corn reached 983,750 tonnes. Authorities in China sold 757,624 tonnes of corn crops in 2013. and 2014.

Yesterday soybeans futures in Chicago rose by 10 - 13.25 cents / bushel. USDA announced a private export sale of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans from the new crop for an unknown destination. Export sales of US soybeans are 123,181 tonnes + 1,559 million tonnes. The largest buyer is an unknown buyer with a volume of 1.13 million tonnes of soybeans. Soybeans exports reached 687,007 tonnes. Sales of soybean meal were 71,700 tonnes + 348,900 tonnes and soybeans oil 3,600 tonnes + 4,200 tonnes.