The EUR/USD currency pair rose to 1.0416. The price of US WTI light crude oil fell to 74.62 USD per barrel.

Oil prices declined on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump urged OPEC to lower prices following the announcement of broad measures to increase U.S. production in his first week in office. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on Friday that he and Donald Trump should meet to discuss the war in Ukraine and energy prices. The parties are positioning themselves for negotiations.

Oil markets are likely leaning slightly bearish due to Trump's policies aimed at boosting U.S. production, as he seeks to secure foreign markets for American crude oil. The United States aims to capture some of OPEC’s market share, making it a competitor in this regard. However, OPEC and its allies, including Russia, have yet to respond to Trump’s call. Analysts at Goldman Sachs stated that they do not expect a significant impact on Russian production.

Yesterday, March wheat futures in Chicago fell by 8 1/2 cents to $5.35 1/2 per bushel. Wheat futures in Chicago and Paris declined. For the week ending January 23, 2025, U.S. wheat export inspections were 484,544 tons (261,776 the previous week and 283,789 a year earlier), bringing the total for the season to 13.76 million tons (11.01 million last season). For the week starting January 29, 2025, Russia’s wheat export tax will be 4,430.1 rubles/ton (4,699.6 rubles a week earlier). According to IKAR, Russian wheat prices rose by 2.5 USD/ton last week to 236.5 USD/ton due to tightening supply. The long-awaited price movement since the start of the season is finally materializing.

Analysts suggest that last week's cold snap across the US Wheat Belt may have destroyed up to 15% of winter wheat crops in large areas of the region. The lack or absence of snow cover is the primary cause of significant damage.

Yesterday, CBOT March corn futures declined by 4 1/2 cents to $4.82 per bushel. Corn futures in Chicago and Paris also declined, with prices negatively impacted by tariff threats. The USDA reported a private export sale of 139,000 tons of corn to Mexico. The conflict between the United States and Colombia over deported migrants, in which tariff threats were involved, was resolved with Colombia agreeing to take back its citizens. Colombia is a major buyer of U.S. corn and ethanol and a significant oil exporter to the U.S. Weekly U.S. corn export inspections were 1,247,004 tons (1,542,329 the previous week and 926,349 a year earlier), bringing the total for the season to 20.50 million tons (15.67 million last season). In Brazil, 9% of the first corn crop has been harvested, and 2.2% of the second crop has been planted. The USDA attaché in Argentina projects a corn production of 49 million tons with exports of 34 million tons. The sorghum production is expected to reach 3.8 million tons, with 1.5 million tons set for export.

Yesterday, Chicago March soybean futures decreased by 10 3/4 cents to $10.45 per bushel. The soybean complex in Chicago and rapeseed futures in Paris declined, while canola futures in Canada remained mostly unchanged. Weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 729,362 tons (979,290 the previous week and 913,497 a year earlier), bringing the season total to 33.03 million tons (27.69 million last season). AgRural reduced its soybean production estimate for Brazil by 0.5 million tons to 171 million tons due to lower yields. Soybean prices in Paraná, Brazil, fell to their lowest level since August 2024.

Due to a sunseed shortage, three Kernel plants—the largest sunseed processor in Ukraine—have switched to alternative raw materials. In January, one of the plants halted operations due to a lack of supplies. Between October and December, Kernel processed 973,000 tons of oilseeds (+20% year-over-year), with growth attributed to the launch of a new plant in western Ukraine. During this period, the company's gross profit was $37 million (-37% YoY), equating to 136 USD/ton (171 USD/ton last year). Over the coming months, the global supply of sunseed oil is expected to decline, leading to higher prices.

The global situation remains highly unstable. No sector appears predictable for 2025. Beyond geopolitics, which is significantly disrupting economies, an intense battle for markets and influence is unfolding. We strive to keep pace with rapidly shifting rules and trends.