Wheat

Wheat opened Friday showing varied momentum across classes. The July 2025 CBOT wheat contract stood at $5.34 per bushel, having closed Thursday up 3 ¾ cents. However, early Friday movement showed slight softness, down 1 cent. Chicago SRW futures saw moderate gains Thursday, while Kansas City HRW was up 6–7 cents. Minneapolis spring wheat outperformed, rising 12–14 cents, driven by ongoing concerns about production risks in Russia and Ukraine. Preliminary open interest also shifted, with SRW futures rising and HRW contracts declining.

Corn

Corn futures opened at $4.47 per bushel Friday, reflecting a 4-cent loss at Thursday’s close. The market continues to respond to weak export interest and the burden of high U.S. stock levels. Despite modest support from ethanol-related demand—backed by a rise in weekly ethanol production to an 8-week high of 1.056 million barrels per day—corn remains under pressure. Export activity showed limited excitement, with private sales of 104,000 MT to Mexico and 101,096 MT to unknown destinations. Forecasted rains across key U.S. corn-growing regions may aid crop prospects but also raise disease concerns.

Soybeans

Soybeans began Friday’s session at $10.51¾ per bushel, up 3¼ cents from Thursday’s close, though morning movement showed a 5¾-cent decline. The market received mixed signals, with modest gains in soymeal prices and declines in soyoil futures. Preliminary open interest was up significantly, reflecting speculative activity. Export expectations remain conservative amid sluggish demand, though analysts await Friday’s USDA sales report. Weather forecasts indicate some upcoming rains for Northern Plains and Midwest regions, potentially aiding late-planting progress and relieving dryness.

Global Market Drivers and Key Headlines

Strategic shifts in Ukrainian grain exports are beginning to reshape trade flows. With 97% of the 2025 spring sowing campaign completed, Ukraine has planted 5.5 million hectares of grain, including nearly 4 million hectares of corn. However, its wheat exports are projected to fall to 15 million tons in the upcoming 2025/26 season due to shifting EU trade policies and competitive harvests in Southern Europe. Markets are eyeing June 5 as a critical date when EU preferences for Ukrainian agriculture may expire, with ongoing negotiations expected through July.

In Russia, the Agricultural Ministry will adjust base prices used in calculating export duties, likely impacting competitiveness in upcoming tenders. Russia’s wheat export forecast has been raised to 40.8 million tons by SovEcon, while Deputy PM Patrushev expects total wheat exports to reach 44.5 million tons this year. Still, slow early-season pace and high domestic prices are creating headwinds. Export quotas remain underutilized, with 2.5 million tons still unclaimed.

Argentina's 2025/26 wheat planting is off to a strong start, covering 10.5% of the projected 6.7 million hectares. Dry conditions aided fieldwork in western zones, though heavy rains delayed planting in eastern core regions. Meanwhile, the soybean and corn harvests remain behind schedule but are expected to accelerate as drier weather prevails.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange held steady its 2024/25 production outlooks: 50 million tons for soybeans and 49 million tons for corn. Soybean harvest reached 80.7% completion, with corn trailing at 40.5%.

In India, the government imposed new limits on wheat stockpiles for traders and retailers to combat hoarding and speculative activity. This move comes amid efforts to safeguard food security and stabilize domestic prices. The wheat procurement campaign has so far yielded 29.82 million tons—enough to support public distribution programs.

Palm oil continues to experience volatility. Malaysian palm oil futures dipped 54 ringgit overnight, influenced by trade tensions and competition from alternative oils. TDM Bhd. anticipates strong medium-term demand, particularly from Asia and the Middle East. Indonesia’s domestic biodiesel program may cut exports by 7% this year.

In the U.S., drought concerns persist. Corn areas experiencing drought grew to 23%, while soybean regions rose to 17%. Winter wheat areas in drought declined to 16%. Meanwhile, Mississippi River barge shipments fell sharply—corn down 17%, soybeans nearly 20%—reflecting logistical bottlenecks and cost pressures, including barge rates rising to $12.61/ton.

China stepped up cloud seeding efforts to boost rainfall in its wheat regions, intensifying weather modification operations in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Shanxi. The Chinese Meteorological Administration reported a 20% increase in rain enhancement activity compared to 2024, generating 500 million cubic meters of additional precipitation—critical as the harvest period approaches.

In Europe, forecasts continue to call for warmth and scattered rain, with France, the UK, and Germany hoping for stronger moisture inflows. Deficit conditions remain in several areas as winter wheat enters key reproductive phases.

Finally, the Black Sea region received scattered rains, but cumulative deficits remain a concern. Eastern Ukraine and western Russia may see additional systems next week, but rainfall coverage remains uncertain. Market sentiment continues to be shaped by these evolving weather dynamics, especially as planting wraps up and harvest planning begins across the hemisphere.