U.S. Futures Close

Wheat eased on Monday, with Chicago SRW Dec ’25 down 2½¢ to $5.12¾/bu as weak inspection data offset support from a fresh Saudi wheat tender. HRW and spring contracts also slipped modestly, showing limited follow-through demand despite steady registrations.

Corn edged higher, with CBOT Dec ’25 closing at $4.21¾/bu, up 2¾¢. Stronger inspections near 1.60 MMT lent support, though export competitiveness concerns lingered given Brazil’s aggressive pace and Argentina’s expanding acreage.

Soybeans ended nearly flat, Nov ’25 at $10.17¾/bu, down ¼¢, as meal weakened but soyoil rallied on palm-oil strength. Inspections improved week-on-week yet still lagged well behind last year, reflecting the void left by absent Chinese demand.

Global Market Drivers

Argentina was a standout with corn prospects climbing to a record 58 MMT for 2025/26, an 8.4% year-on-year increase. Favorable rainfall has accelerated planting to nearly 20% of intended area, while reduced export taxes and improved pest control have made corn more profitable than soybeans. This shift highlights a regional rebalancing in South America’s grain mix that could alter trade flows into 2025.

China reshaped oilseed-meal flows after levying a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and oil. Buyers quickly turned to India, securing 52,000 tons in just three weeks — four times the total imported from India in all of 2024. This pivot is reshuffling protein demand across Asia, weighing on soymeal and sunflower-meal premiums while complicating South American exporters’ calculus.

India remained a firm anchor in rice markets by maintaining restrictions on exports, keeping Asian rice prices supported. The policy indirectly bolsters demand for wheat and corn in nearby importing countries, as buyers seek substitutes. With the Philippines also extending its import ban through 2025, regional trade flows continue to tighten, reinforcing cereals as key feed-grain alternatives.

European supply developments added to the competitive backdrop. Poland revised its wheat harvest higher to 13.4 MMT, strengthening EU export competitiveness, while the European Commission confirmed robust wheat shipments but warned of rising pressure from Black Sea origins. These dynamics place EU suppliers in a delicate balance between strong demand and intense price competition.

U.S. logistical challenges returned to focus as water levels along the Mississippi River fell again, raising concerns about barge traffic delays. Any prolonged disruption could reroute grain to rail and truck, elevating transport costs at a time when U.S. exporters are already struggling to maintain global market share.

In South America, Brazil’s soybean planting accelerated to 9.15% of intended area, the fastest pace on record. While the south benefits from rains, central Brazil’s dryness risks poor germination and costly replanting if mid-October showers fail. This regional split could become a decisive factor for global meal and oil spreads in the weeks ahead.

Vegetable oils remained a stabilizing force. Malaysian palm inventories slipped 2.5% to 2.15 MMT in September, the first draw in seven months, as exports jumped and production eased. This supported soyoil and cushioned soybeans against demand concerns tied to China’s absence from the U.S. export book.

Finally, the absence of USDA reporting left markets leaning on private estimates. Firms like StoneX and S&P Global trimmed U.S. corn yield expectations while raising soybeans modestly, reflecting mixed harvest conditions. With WASDE and weekly sales frozen by the shutdown, traders are left to parse weather maps, cash indices, and export line-ups for direction — heightening volatility until official benchmarks return.