Wheat

Chicago SRW wheat for December ’25 began Monday softer, around $4.95/bu — roughly 3½¢ below Friday’s $4.98½ close — amid sluggish EU loadings, persistent Black Sea competition, and a mostly dry U.S. winter-wheat belt that supports stand establishment but tempers rally potential. New selling interest emerged late last week, with SRW open interest up 14,668 contracts, while HRW eased and Minneapolis spring slightly outperformed into the prior close. In the near term, U.S. planting should progress under a drier seven-day outlook, even as strong Siberian yields pushed Russia’s 2025 wheat crop estimate to 87.8 MMT.

Corn

CBOT December ’25 corn opened near $4.13¼/bu, marginally firmer than Friday’s $4.13 close, as outside markets steadied and harvest weather remained largely favorable across much of the Midwest. The market is still digesting last week’s pressure and net new selling — open interest up 22,267 contracts — while cash corn averages around $3.72 and the October futures average, near $4.19, continues to anchor U.S. crop-insurance pricing. Weather models point to showers that could slow Eastern Corn Belt fieldwork later this week; abroad, Argentina’s corn is 26% planted, while Brazil’s center-south first-crop progress is in the mid-40% range.

Soybeans

CBOT November ’25 soybeans began Monday slightly higher, around $10.09¾/bu after a $10.06¾ close, with early strength supported by steadier veg-oils and optimism over Brazilian weather following two drier weeks. The month-to-date futures average near $10.19 continues to guide crop-insurance pricing, even as Friday’s tariff-related noise briefly pressured the market. China’s September soybean imports rose to 12.87 MMT — the second-highest on record — fueled by Brazil and new Argentine purchases, underscoring South America’s hold on U.S. Gulf demand into Q4.

Global Market Drivers

China’s soybean demand remained the central driver of global trade flows. September imports reached 12.87 million tons, the second-highest monthly volume on record, and up 13.2% year-on-year. Nearly all came from Brazil, while late-month deals with Argentina added further supply, sidelining U.S. farmers during their critical marketing season. Year-to-date imports now stand at 86.18 million tons, up 5.3% from last year, reinforcing South America’s grip on China’s oilseed supply and deepening the gap for U.S. exporters.

U.S.–China relations injected fresh volatility into agricultural markets. Goldman Sachs warned of a wider range of possible outcomes ahead of expected APEC talks, from concessions that could ease tariffs and export controls to escalations that reimpose triple-digit duties. The uncertainty has kept traders cautious, with any sign of White House or Beijing policy changes likely to ripple quickly through futures, cash markets, and global grain flows.

Russian wheat fundamentals remained a mix of strength and weakness. SovEcon raised its 2025 wheat crop forecast to 87.8 million tons, citing record Siberian yields, but early-season exports lagged sharply. July–September shipments were down nearly a third compared with last year, hindered by poor southern yields, state-imposed export duties, and added port inspections that caused vessel delays. Prices at Novorossiysk rose to about $225 per ton, suggesting potential acceleration later this year, but Russia’s competitive edge has already eroded in some African and Middle Eastern markets.

Ukraine’s crop outlook continued to diverge between grains and oilseeds. APK-Inform lifted its 2025/26 grain harvest forecast to 59.1 million tons, with exports projected at 43.5 million, thanks to better-than-expected wheat and corn output. At the same time, sunflower seed and oil production estimates were cut to 12.5 million and 5.36 million tons respectively, reflecting poor weather in the south. This contrast signals greater wheat and corn availability from the Black Sea while tightening veg-oil balances.

South America was firmly in focus as weather shaped fieldwork momentum. Brazil’s soybean planting reached 12.5–14% of projected area by early October, running well ahead of last year, aided by the return of seasonal rains in the center-west and consistent moisture fronts in the south. Corn first-crop progress stood around 45% in central-south states, keeping pace with seasonal norms. Argentina, meanwhile, saw ample soil moisture after weekend showers, maintaining favorable conditions for early corn even as La Niña risks loom later in the season.

Logistics and weather continued to influence U.S. supply chains. Heavy rains and even snow in the Northern Plains slowed harvest progress, while parts of the Midwest remained workable before a frontal system promises showers later this week. The Delta saw dryness return, and with Mississippi River levels only temporarily boosted by Ohio Valley rains, barge freight and draft restrictions remain key watchpoints for grain movement south.

Brazil’s export engine kept pressure on U.S. offers. Corn shipments in September reached 7.56 million tons, 18% higher than last year, while soybean meal exports surged to their strongest September since 2002. Local soybean prices firmed, buoyed by Chinese demand expectations and a stronger real, with CEPEA indices showing weekly gains across both spot and wholesale markets. Sellers largely stepped back from spot deals to focus on planting, further tightening near-term supply.

India added a structural policy twist with the launch of $4 billion worth of agricultural support programs aimed at boosting productivity, expanding irrigation, and reducing dependence on pulse imports. Over time, these measures could reshape South Asian demand patterns for wheat and corn as substitution flows adjust, adding another layer of uncertainty to global balances.