Wheat — $4.925/bu (Dec ’25 CBOT) at the start of Tuesday’s trade. Wheat stays heavy as ample global supply and few fresh weather threats keep rallies capped. U.S. futures were mostly softer into Tuesday morning after a choppy Monday, with additional pressure from intensifying export competition—Russia remains aggressive even as its September seaborne shipments slipped year on year. European cues are mixed: France trimmed its soft-wheat output estimate only marginally and remains well above last year, while Brazil’s imported wheat is pricing at its cheapest since late 2020, undercutting local offers and dampening demand for domestic grain.
Corn — $4.095/bu (Dec ’25 CBOT) at the start of Tuesday’s trade. The market leans lower on hedge and harvest pressure as analysts peg U.S. harvest progress in the mid-40% range, even without the usual USDA Crop Progress due to the shutdown. Internationally, France’s ministry nudged its corn production higher versus last month (though still below last year on summer heat/drought), while Brazilian agency CONAB lifted its 2025/26 corn outlook. Near-term U.S. and Plains weather is largely benign for fieldwork, reinforcing a bearish early-week tone.
Soybeans — $10.0325/bu (Nov ’25 CBOT) at the start of Tuesday’s trade. Beans steadied after Monday’s modest bounce, with sentiment helped by conciliatory weekend remarks from the U.S. administration that eased nerves after a sharp, trade-tension-driven selloff. Still, China has halted U.S. purchases, and Brazil’s fast planting pace (third-quickest on record for the date) keeps the forward supply story comfortable. Oilseed products are mixed: meal firmed slightly while soyoil softened overnight; palm markets weakened as well.
Global drivers for today’s session
Across the U.S. heartland, harvest is advancing—analysts estimate soybeans ~58% and corn ~44% complete—even though the USDA’s normal Monday updates are on hold during the shutdown. The big takeaway for traders is steady field progress into broadly favorable October weather, a dynamic that tends to cap rallies as fresh supplies hit the pipeline.
Trade tensions cooled slightly after sharp rhetoric late last week: statements from President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled ongoing talks with China, helping soy futures stabilize. However, China’s pause on U.S. soybean purchases remains a tangible headwind, keeping export optimism in check until concrete buying returns.
Brazil’s new-crop sprint continues. AgRural reports soybean planting at 14% complete—well ahead of last year—with summer corn in the Center-South 45% planted. Short-term Brazilian weather trends a bit drier into late October (supportive for progress) before larger rain chances rebuild; Argentina runs warmer and mostly dry near-term, with rains improving later—net supportive for fieldwork and early crop stands.
Palm oil policy watch: Indonesia is considering regulating crude palm oil (CPO) exports to secure enough feedstock for a planned B50 biodiesel mandate in 2H26. At the same time, Malaysia kept its CPO export tax at 10% for November. Tighter SE Asian veg-oil balances could ripple into soyoil and rapeseed oil, nudging the broader oilseed complex.
China’s weather is now a market story. Continuous rainfall in the key Huang-Huai-Hai belt is disrupting the autumn harvest and complicating grain drying, while cool/wet forecasts bring frost risks to the Northeast and North China Plain. Any prolonged delays could trim quality and slow logistics; wetness may also delay winter-wheat sowing, with potential knock-ons for next year’s supply.
Russia’s grain exports softened in September: seaborne volumes fell ~10% y/y and are ~21% lower so far this season, reflecting a slower harvest pace. Even so, Russia remains a formidable wheat seller; any lull in shipments is watched closely for pricing impact in upcoming tenders from buyers like Saudi Arabia, Algeria, and South Korea.
Europe’s balance sheet is mixed. France’s ministry shaved soft-wheat output to ~33.2 MMT (still well above last year and the five-year average) and lifted corn to ~13.5 MMT; meanwhile, growers’ group AGPM expects maize yields below the five-year norm after summer heat and dryness hit non-irrigated fields. The net effect is a region that’s comfortable on wheat yet tighter on corn than in 2024.
Price competitiveness is shifting. In Brazil, imported wheat prices in September fell to their lowest since Nov ’20, undercutting domestic offers and pressuring interior values—another sign that global arbitrage continues to shape demand away from higher-priced origins. For oilseeds, consultants trimmed Russia’s sunflower seed output on poor southern yields but raised soybean production estimates, keeping the broader veg-oil/oilseed balance nuanced rather than outright tight.