Wheat — Dec ’25 CBOT settled at $5.00¼/bu, up about 3½¢ on the day as the complex firmed across SRW, HRW and spring wheat. Export inspections showed 444,138 MT shipped in the latest week, with Indonesia, Japan and Mexico the largest takers. South Korea tendered for 95,000 MT, France trimmed soft-wheat output to 33.2 MMT, and EU soft-wheat exports (Jul 1–Oct 12) reached 5.51 MMT—still below last year. Together, steady demand signals and mixed European balance-sheet tweaks helped wheat close higher despite ongoing global harvest pressure.

Corn — Dec ’25 CBOT settled at $4.13/bu, up roughly 2¼¢ after a choppy session. Weekly U.S. corn export shipments printed 1.129 MMT, with Mexico leading, and 2025/26 exports since Sept 1 now near 7.94 MMT. Brazil stayed in focus: CONAB lifted its 2025/26 crop outlook to 138.6 MMT and ANEC raised October export ideas to 6.46 MMT. Taiwan issued a tender for up to 65,000 MT. With U.S. harvest advancing and weather broadly cooperative, the board still managed a firmer close.

Soybeans — Nov ’25 CBOT settled at $10.06½/bu, down about 1¼¢ as early weakness met late support. Markets took cues from calmer U.S.–China rhetoric over the weekend, but China’s pause on U.S. purchases kept a lid on rallies. Weekly export inspections totaled 994,008 MT (Mexico, Spain, Bangladesh notable), and traders looked ahead to NOPA’s September crush (street ~186.3 mbu). In Brazil, AgRural pegged soybean planting at 14%—the third-fastest pace on record—keeping forward supply comfortable.

Global market drivers

Markets continued to digest the U.S.–China trade standoff, which last week escalated after Beijing expanded its rare earth export controls. President Trump’s sharp countermeasure rattled markets on Friday, but his weekend remarks, along with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s reassurance of ongoing talks, helped ease fears. Traders now see the dispute as a headwind but not yet a roadblock, though China’s halt on U.S. soybean purchases still weighs heavily on sentiment

The U.S. harvest advanced steadily, with analysts pegging corn at ~44% and soybeans at ~58% complete. Conditions remain generally favorable, but farmer selling and harvest pressure are dragging on corn. Winter wheat planting is also progressing, estimated near two-thirds complete. Unlike last year’s rapid harvest, this season’s crop dry-down has been slower, leaving markets wary of supply pressure continuing into late October

European grain fundamentals showed a split picture. France’s agriculture ministry trimmed its soft-wheat forecast slightly to 33.2 MMT, still nearly 30% above last year’s depressed crop and above the five-year average, while corn output was lifted to 13.5 MMT. Yet growers’ group AGPM expects maize yields below the five-year norm due to heat and dryness, especially on non-irrigated land. Barley and durum wheat estimates were nudged lower, underlining that Europe is well supplied with wheat but tighter on corn

China’s weather is emerging as a critical factor. Persistent rainfall in the Huang-Huai-Hai belt is disrupting the autumn harvest, which accounts for 75% of annual grain output. The vice premier called for “swift action” to secure the harvest, and the government allocated roughly $68 million to support affected provinces. Farmers are deploying drying equipment, yet the ongoing rains risk delaying winter wheat sowing, with potential knock-ons for 2026 supply

In South America, Brazil is sprinting ahead with new crops. Soy planting is 14% complete—its third-fastest pace on record—while summer corn in the Center-South is 45% seeded. Short-term forecasts show drier weather into late October before rain chances return, offering a good window for fieldwork. Argentina remains mostly dry and warm short term, with rain relief expected later, keeping crop prospects broadly favorable.

Russia’s exports slowed in September, with seaborne grain shipments down ~10% y/y to 5.1 MMT, and season-to-date volumes running 20.9% below last year. Most of the weakness came from Black Sea and Baltic flows, while Caspian shipments to Iran picked up. Even with the dip, Russia remains a dominant supplier, but reduced flows add uncertainty to global tender dynamics.

The vegetable oils complex was jolted by policy headlines. Indonesia signaled it may regulate crude palm-oil exports to ensure enough domestic supply for a planned B50 biodiesel mandate by 2H26. This raises the prospect of reduced global edible oil flows. In contrast, Malaysia confirmed its CPO export tax will remain at the maximum 10% in November, as gazetted prices stayed above 4,050 ringgit/ton

Finally, the oilseed balance in Russia tightened as SovEcon cut its sunflower seed production estimate to 17.2 MMT, the lowest in 13 years, citing record-low southern yields. IKAR also reduced its outlook. However, both raised soybean production forecasts, tempering some of the deficit. Since Russia is one of the world’s biggest sunflower-oil exporters, these revisions matter for the global veg-oil trade and price formation