Wheat — Dec ’25 CBOT settled Wednesday at $4.98¾/bu, down 1½¢. After trying to build on early strength, contracts faded into the close as mixed export cues and a lack of fresh weather threats capped follow-through. South Korea booked 50,000 MT of U.S. wheat, FranceAgriMer held non-EU soft-wheat export ideas steady and trimmed ending stocks, and next-week rain distribution looks heaviest in SRW areas while the Southern Plains trend drier.

Corn — Dec ’25 CBOT settled Wednesday at $4.16¾/bu, up 3¾¢. The board firmed despite ongoing harvest pressure, helped by demand flashes and steadier energy-complex sentiment. Taiwan bought 65,000 MT of U.S. corn and two South Korean importers reportedly secured 269,000 MT in private tenders. Traders continue to eye delayed U.S. export/ethanol statistics amid the federal shutdown.

Soybeans — Nov ’25 CBOT settled Wednesday at $10.06½/bu, unchanged. Futures churned but held the line as a record-large NOPA September crush beat expectations, offsetting the drag from China’s pause on U.S. purchases. Soyoil stocks among NOPA members edged fractionally below August and well above last year, while meal strength provided a modest underpin.

Global market drivers

The grain trade this week was shaped by a mix of geopolitical noise, shifting demand signals, and harvest momentum across hemispheres. Washington–Beijing friction returned to the spotlight when President Trump floated measures to “terminate” some cooking-oil trade links with China. Although the direct impact is muted—U.S. imports of China’s used-cooking-oil are already down by 65% year-to-date—his remarks added headline risk to a market already unsettled by Beijing’s halt on U.S. soybean buying. Traders continue to interpret the shift as part of China’s broader realignment toward South American origins, especially Brazil and Argentina.

Harvest progress in the United States remains a defining feature of short-term supply. Private surveys estimate soybean collection at roughly 60% complete and corn at 45%, with winter wheat planting two-thirds advanced. Warm October conditions and only scattered showers are generally favorable for fieldwork, keeping grain flowing steadily into pipelines and limiting the scope for major price spikes. Still, intermittent weather interruptions in the Midwest and Plains are being monitored as they could briefly slow logistics.

South America is running ahead of schedule, reinforcing global supply comfort. Brazil’s soybean planting pace stands at 14%—its third-fastest on record—while summer corn seeding in the Center-South is near half complete. Forecasts of drier weather into late October offer a near-term window for uninterrupted fieldwork before rains return, and agronomists note that isolated soybean replanting after early dryness is unlikely to dent the broader outlook if moisture normalizes. Official projections remain lofty, with CONAB setting soybeans at 177.6 MMT and corn at 138.6 MMT, while ANEC raised October export expectations across soy, meal, and corn.

India is also redrawing the edible-oil map. In September, palm oil imports fell sharply by 16.3% month-on-month to 829,000 tons, while soyoil imports surged nearly 37% to a fifteen-month high of 503,000 tons. Sunflower oil arrivals reached a nine-month peak, signaling a clear diversification away from palm. This pivot has bullish undertones for global soyoil demand while weighing on palm markets, particularly if October palm arrivals continue to slide.

Weather continues to act as a global lever. North American conditions remain largely benign for harvesting, with warmth stretching into late October. Australia is benefiting from well-timed fronts that aid wheat and rapeseed development, South Africa’s drier stretch supports maize planting, and in South America, moisture profiles are gradually improving. Meteorologists highlight the persistence of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole into winter, which may temper weather extremes across Asia and North America but still bears watching for crop-critical regions.

Europe’s balance sheet displayed a more nuanced picture. EU soft-wheat exports are running 23% below last year at 5.5 MMT through mid-October, while barley shipments are surging 49% higher and corn imports have dropped by more than a quarter. The European Commission flagged gaps in French reporting, yet the broader story underscores strong domestic availability and the mounting pressure of Black Sea competition in key import markets.

In the Black Sea, Ukraine’s winter sowing campaign is trailing last year’s pace, with winter wheat area down 15% year-on-year and winter barley off by a third. This raises longer-term concerns for 2026 grain availability from the region. Russia, meanwhile, has kept an active export presence in Asia: 52,000 tons of wheat were shipped to Indonesia this month after regulators extended lab accreditation, signaling continued demand despite overall seaborne flows lagging last year by about 20%.

Vegetable oils added another layer of volatility. Malaysia confirmed its crude palm oil export tax at the maximum 10% for November, while analysts debated whether September marked the peak in inventories. Some see scope for stock drawdowns into year-end, potentially lending support to prices, while others caution that strong East Malaysian output could keep inventories flat. Russia also trimmed its sunflower seed harvest forecast to a 13-year low on weak southern yields, though soybean production estimates were raised, slightly softening the blow for oilseed balances.