Wheat

On Tuesday, Chicago wheat lost its early momentum and closed weaker. The attached report does not publish the official settlement price; the last quoted level toward the end of the session showed Dec ’25 CBOT around $5.03/bu, up roughly 2¾¢ on the day. The market weighed a forecast of 1–3 inches of rain in parts of the Southern Plains—favorable for winter wheat establishment—against still-comfortable global supplies. Algeria’s soft wheat tender kept demand signals active, while Black Sea updates showed Russia’s 2025 crop idea lifted to ~88 MMT, and Ukraine reported winter wheat sowing nearly three-quarters complete.

Corn

Corn retreated after recent gains, with “Turnaround Tuesday” pressure and profit-taking trimming the board. Although the source pack does not list the final settlement, the last afternoon reference showed Dec ’25 near $4.23/bu, up about 3¼¢ at mid-session before late-session pressure. The average U.S. cash corn price stood at ~$3.79½/bu, and near-term ethanol production was expected to hold firm after last week’s strong report; later, the EIA confirmed output near multi-month highs with a draw in stocks. Export tone remained constructive, with a South Korean buyer booking fresh tonnage and Brazil’s October corn exports revised higher.

Soybeans

Soybean contracts closed slightly lower after an early attempt to extend Monday’s rally. The document does not include the official settlement; the last intraday indication showed Nov ’25 around $10.34¼/bu, up ~3½¢ at mid-day before slipping to finish about a penny lower. Product values diverged (soymeal steady-firm, soyoil weaker), as the market digested U.S.–China trade frictions and South America’s brisk pace; Brazil’s October soybean export estimates were again lifted, highlighting the pull toward Atlantic origins, while U.S. weekly inspections remain below last year’s levels.

Global Market Drivers

The U.S. farm policy backdrop came sharply into focus as the Trump administration announced that $3 billion in suspended farm aid will be released this week, alongside plans for further assistance to soybean growers blocked from the Chinese market. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins confirmed that Farm Service Agency programs, including farm loans and price-loss coverage, will resume despite the government shutdown. The move highlights how farmer support remains a political tool, cushioning cash flows during a harvest season weighed by volatile prices and restricted export outlets.

Trade dynamics remain pivotal, with no new U.S. soybean sales to China reported and nothing scheduled to load, according to the American Soybean Association and U.S. Soybean Export Council. Instead, harvested beans are being diverted into storage, raising the risk of a ballooning carryover if the deadlock persists. Farmer groups warn of financial collapse for those already on the edge, particularly younger operators carrying heavy debt. Meanwhile, Japan is preparing a purchase package of soybeans, gas, and U.S. pickups to present during President Trump’s upcoming visit, potentially trimming Brazilian soy volumes to make room for U.S. supply.

South American developments continue to reinforce supply abundance. Brazil’s October export programs were lifted again, with soybeans now pegged at 7.34 MMT, soymeal at 2.09 MMT, and corn at 6.57 MMT. Abiove raised its 2025/26 soybean crop estimate to 178.5 MMT, up nearly 7 MMT year-on-year, with crush expected to increase by 2 MMT. Argentina also benefits from favorable rainfall patterns this week, bolstering corn stands and preparing fields for soybean sowing to accelerate in November.

China remains caught between erratic weather and strained trade flows. Record northern rains have rotted crops in top provinces such as Henan and Shandong, forcing farmers to offload grain quickly at pressured prices, which have fallen over 3% this month. Imports are down 93% year-to-date to below 1 MMT, leaving the country exposed to supply shocks. At the same time, Beijing is mobilizing resources for grain drying and drainage, while the farm ministry has launched a 60-day campaign to mitigate flood impacts on winter wheat sowing.

Weather risks across global production zones continue to drive sentiment. In the U.S., frequent rains are delaying harvest progress but helping replenish the drought-hit Midwest and improving Mississippi River navigation. Forecasts show a drier trend mid-week in the Central and Southern Plains before another round of rains arrives, favorable for winter wheat establishment. South America’s mixed conditions include a drier interlude in Brazil before showers restart in central regions early next week, while Argentina benefits from renewed moisture. In Europe and the Black Sea, scattered rains are improving soil reserves, though dryness in southwestern Russia remains a serious winterkill threat.

Policy signals add new complexity for vegetable oil and grain flows. Indonesia’s biodiesel consumption rose nearly 10% year-on-year to 10.57 million kilolitres under B40, with a target to move to B50 by late 2026, a shift with major implications for palm and soyoil balances. Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute reversed its stance on expanding E15 ethanol sales, marking a widening rift between oil and farm lobbies over biofuel policy. In Brazil, officials reiterated concerns that the B16 biodiesel mandate may slip beyond March 2026.

Corporate and structural moves also shaped the market landscape. Louis Dreyfus and Molinos advanced a $1.3 billion restructuring offer for troubled Argentine soy exporter Vicentin, underscoring consolidation trends in South America’s oilseed sector. Meanwhile, U.S. ethanol output hit near-record levels last week at 1.112 million barrels per day, with stocks falling by 709,000 barrels—evidence of robust demand even as policy debates continue.

Finally, geopolitical signals remain in play. President Trump expressed optimism about his upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in South Korea, though he acknowledged it may not materialize. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to meet Chinese officials in Malaysia beforehand to defuse trade tensions. With rare earths, tariffs, and soybeans on the agenda, any progress—or lack thereof—will ripple quickly through global grain and oilseed markets.