Wheat — Chicago December ’25 started the session near $5.26½/bu after an early double-digit pop. That implies a strong bid versus Friday’s close at $5.12½ as winter wheats lead the complex. The tone is helped by friendlier macro sentiment around U.S.–China dialogue, while fresh European progress on winter sowing and widespread Black Sea rains frame the supply outlook. France reported a sharp weekly jump in soft-wheat seeding to 57%, Turkey trimmed its 2025 wheat estimate to 17.9 MMT, and Argentina’s harvest has begun—headlines the trade is balancing against Monday’s rally.
Corn — Chicago December ’25 opened around $4.29¾/bu, up 6–7¢ from the prior settlement at $4.23¼. Open interest has been edging higher, hinting at new length, while U.S. cash remains soft on average. South American weather is pivotal: Brazil’s first-crop corn is roughly half planted with showers returning this week to central areas, and Argentina’s early-corn progress has pushed to the mid-30s amid cooler temps. Into month-end, the October average sits near $4.20, modestly above last year’s crop-insurance harvest price but well under February’s base.
Soybeans — Chicago November ’25 kicked off near $10.63¾/bu, about 20–22¢ firmer versus Friday’s $10.41¾ close as the complex responds to weekend headlines about potential Chinese buying and robust soymeal demand. Brazil’s soybean planting pace has accelerated, with fieldwork set to re-ignite as fronts migrate north; Argentine moisture remains mostly supportive. Nearby strength is tempered by reports of thin crush margins in China and a still-covered near-term import slate.
Today’s global drivers and key headlines
U.S.–China trade optics are front-and-center for today’s session. After talks in Kuala Lumpur, U.S. Treasury officials signaled China could make “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans ahead of a Trump–Xi meeting later this week. That helps sentiment in the oilseed complex, even if Chinese crushers have already booked ample coverage into early 2026 and are wrestling with negative December crush margins. Any concrete purchase flashes this week would skew bullish nearby CBOT beans and meal.
Counterbalancing the thaw narrative, Washington launched a new Section 301 probe into China’s compliance with the 2020 “Phase One” deal, a move that keeps tariff risk alive into November. With the truce on higher levies set to lapse mid-month and talk of a potential 100% tariff threat if rare-earth curbs persist, trade policy remains a two-way headline risk for grains, particularly soybeans.
Weather is resetting South American expectations. Southern Brazil picked up heavy rain over the weekend, with fronts moving into central Brazil this week to restart showers after dryness slowed soybean seeding. Another system is queued for late week, seen as more broadly beneficial. In Argentina, a cooler week follows widespread rain; another front this weekend should extend moisture, limiting frost risk to far-southern areas and supporting wheat fill and early-corn stands.
Europe’s winter-grain campaign is running ahead of recent years. A drier early October gave farmers wide sowing windows before this week’s rains, aiding soft-wheat and winter-barley establishment. France has over half its soft-wheat area drilled and nearly three-quarters of winter barley seeded; Germany is near completion where maize/beet harvest allows; the UK reports smooth progress. Net effect: winter-cereal area looks broadly steady, with rapeseed likely to gain the most acreage on margins.
Black Sea moisture is finally arriving. Widespread weekend rain swept the region, with additional showers slated for eastern Ukraine and western Russia early-to-midweek. That’s constructive for pre-dormancy root development, though northern zones will begin to go dormant in early November unless temperatures trend warmer than forecast. The market will watch if this turns into a persistently active winter pattern—key for next year’s wheat prospects.
Russia’s export posture remains assertive, but policy tweaks are in play. The Agriculture Ministry reaffirmed a 50 MMT grain-export target for 2025/26, even as it raised the weekly wheat export duty roughly 70% to 167.7 rubles/ton for Oct 29–Nov 6, while keeping barley and corn at zero. With indicative wheat at ~$225.5/ton, the floating duty/damper continues to fine-tune FOB competitiveness without derailing shipment programs.
Oilseed products are doing more of the heavy lifting. CEPEA flagged firmer global soymeal demand, with Dec ’25 meal up ~5.6% w/w at CME and Brazilian spot values nudging higher despite slower soyoil trade. Brazilian farmers remain reluctant sellers—focused on fieldwork and wary of freight into early 2026—while the real’s recent firming has modestly tempered local price gains. Brazil’s Oct soybean loadings pace has been brisk, underscoring its front-foot export role.
Biofuel and veg-oil crosscurrents round out today’s backdrop. Malaysia and South Africa pledged to expand MSPO-certified palm oil trade, while Indonesia mapped a 2027 start for E10 bioethanol-blended gasoline and reiterated feedstock options (cassava/corn/sugarcane) amid current ethanol shortfalls. Separately, Brazil’s booming corn-ethanol output is displacing cane ethanol, pushing mills toward record sugar production into 2026 and pressuring world sugar—factors that can ripple into global veg-oil spreads and feedstock competition.