Grain markets opened the week under pressure after a heavy USDA data dump reset supply expectations. Larger U.S. corn and soybean production, higher ending stocks, and increased winter wheat acreage delivered a clear bearish shock early in the week, triggering aggressive fund selling in corn and wheat and forcing prices sharply lower. This supply reset set the tone for volatile, headline-driven trade throughout the period.

Corn bore the brunt of the bearish adjustment. USDA confirmed record U.S. production and raised ending stocks well above trade expectations, pushing managed money to expand net short positions to the largest level since October. However, the downside was repeatedly cushioned by strong export demand and a powerful biofuel narrative, highlighted by record U.S. ethanol production and rising refiner inputs, which reinforced corn usage even in the face of surplus supply.

Soybeans quickly shifted from USDA-driven weakness to demand-led strength. Midweek, export sales surged to 2.06 MMT, the third-largest weekly total of the marketing year, with China accounting for more than half of the volume. At the same time, China’s Sinograin sold out repeated soybean auctions and booked additional U.S. cargoes, confirming that near-term import demand remains robust despite expectations for a record Brazilian harvest.

Domestic processing added further support to soybeans. The December NOPA crush reached 224.991 million bushels, near record territory and well above year-ago levels, underscoring strong U.S. demand for meal and oil. While soybean oil stocks rose sharply and EPA biodiesel mandates remained a source of uncertainty, optimism around longer-term biofuel demand helped keep the soy complex supported.

Wheat followed a different path, struggling early before stabilizing late in the week. Weak U.S. weekly export sales and rising global stocks capped rallies, but cumulative export commitments continued to run ahead of last year, and pre-holiday short-covering helped lift prices into Friday’s close. Fund positioning remains heavily net short, leaving wheat sensitive to any sustained improvement in demand or weather risk.

Global supply headlines remained a constant counterweight. Russia’s export forecasts were revised higher, while Brazil and Argentina continued to signal large corn and soybean crops despite pockets of dryness. In South America, improving rains in Brazil supported yield prospects, while persistent dryness in Argentina kept some weather premium alive, particularly for corn and soybeans.

Vegetable oil markets added another layer of complexity. Indonesian signals delaying the B50 biodiesel mandate pressured palm oil, while India shifted imports away from palm oil toward soyoil and sunflower oil. These cross-commodity dynamics fueled volatility in crush margins and influenced fund flows across the oilseed complex.

Positioning amplified every move. Funds aggressively added shorts in corn and trimmed soybean length early in the week, then slowed liquidation into Friday as prices rebounded. The result was sharp intraday reversals, particularly around USDA data, export headlines, and energy markets, with pre-holiday positioning shaping the final sessions.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat finished the week at $5.18, up modestly on Friday but mixed on the week overall. The dominant theme was a tug-of-war between weak weekly sales and improving cumulative export commitments, with heavy fund shorts keeping rallies corrective rather than trend-changing.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn ended the week at $4.24 3/4, down sharply from the prior week despite a late rebound. Record U.S. supply and expanding fund shorts weighed on prices, while ethanol demand and export commitments repeatedly slowed downside momentum.

Soybeans: Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans closed the week at $10.57 3/4, relatively stable after extreme volatility. Massive export sales, strong NOPA crush data, and Chinese buying offset rising South American production estimates and higher U.S. ending stocks, leaving soybeans supported but range-bound.