Grain markets are opening the week under renewed pressure following last Friday’s pre-holiday rebound. Overnight trade shows wheat and corn drifting lower and soybeans easing, as the market refocuses on global supply expansion after a volatile mid-January period. With fund positioning still heavy on the short side in corn and wheat, early trade is reflecting reduced risk appetite rather than fresh buying interest.
Soybeans are under early pressure as traders digest confirmation that China has completed its pledged purchase of roughly 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans under the late-October trade truce. While this confirms strong state-driven demand from Sinograin and COFCO, sources indicated that further U.S. buying is unlikely before the next U.S. harvest unless prices become competitive with South American supplies. This caps near-term upside for Chicago soybeans despite the positive headline.
South American supply developments are increasingly dominant. Brazil’s soybean harvest has accelerated, reaching about 2% complete, ahead of both last year and the five-year average, with Mato Grosso showing particularly strong early results. Private analysts raised Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean production estimate to around 179.28 MMT, reinforcing expectations of record output and heavy export availability in coming months, a clearly bearish influence for soybeans.
Corn markets remain weighed down by projections of rising global supply. USDA and Cepea data continue to point to higher world corn production and stocks, led by the United States, while Brazil’s Conab maintains a large 2025/26 crop outlook despite a slight year-on-year decline. Weak domestic demand in Brazil and flexible selling by producers have kept pressure on international corn values, limiting any follow-through from last week’s export-driven support.
Wheat is trading lower across most winter wheat contracts this morning, despite firm export headlines late last week. Saudi Arabia and Algeria both booked sizable wheat volumes in recent tenders, but rising global stocks, higher Russian export projections, and ample Black Sea supply continue to overshadow demand flashes. Export commitments remain ahead of last year, but the pace is slightly behind the seasonal average, keeping rallies fragile.
Vegetable oil markets are sending mixed signals that are feeding back into the grain complex. Palm oil prices firmed overnight on Southeast Asian markets, but longer-term forecasts point to lower average prices in 2026 as Indonesia delays expansion of its biodiesel mandate and regional supplies remain ample. These dynamics pressure soyoil and indirectly weigh on soybean sentiment, despite ongoing biofuel demand in the U.S.
Weather remains a secondary but notable factor. Cold conditions in parts of North America are largely mitigated by adequate snow cover for winter wheat, while dry conditions in Argentina persist but are partially offset by recent rainfall and soil moisture. Flood risks in central and southeastern Brazil remain a watch point for traders, though current forecasts continue to favor strong crop development overall.
Wheat: Chicago wheat is trading lower early across winter wheat contracts, while spring wheat is steady. The source did not provide an opening quote for Mar ’26 CBOT wheat, so this recap focuses on direction and drivers, with pressure coming from rising global stocks and competitive export supply despite recent tenders.
Corn: Corn is down about 1–2 cents in early trade following last Friday’s gains. The source did not provide an opening quote for Mar ’26 CBOT corn, with early weakness tied to higher global supply projections and subdued international demand sentiment.
Soybeans: Soybeans are trading about 3 cents lower early, with meal firmer and soyoil weaker. The source did not provide an opening quote for Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans; early pressure reflects confirmation that China has met its U.S. buying target and growing expectations for heavy South American supply.