The period from January 20 to 23 was marked by sharp swings across the grain markets, as traders tried to balance strong demand signals against a growing supply backdrop. A U.S. market holiday on January 19 compressed the flow of official data, which added to volatility as markets reacted quickly to each new headline. At times, buying interest pushed prices higher, but rallies were repeatedly capped by expectations of larger global supplies.

The week began with a major demand headline: China completed its pledged purchases of roughly 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans under the late-October trade truce. This confirmed strong state-driven buying and initially lifted soybean prices, as well as related oilseed markets. However, once traders realized that this buying tranche was finished, enthusiasm cooled, with the market quickly shifting focus back to South American supplies unless U.S. prices become competitive again.

Supply concerns from the United States weighed heavily, especially early in the week. Updated USDA estimates pointed to larger production and higher ending stocks for corn and soybeans, reinforcing the idea that global supplies remain comfortable. This prompted funds to add short positions in corn and reduce exposure in soybeans, making the market more sensitive to headlines and limiting the ability of prices to trend higher for long.

Developments in South America were a consistent pressure point. Brazil’s soybean harvest began to pick up pace, with early reports showing around 1–2% of the crop already harvested and private analysts lifting production estimates toward 179 million tons. Industry groups also raised expectations for soybean crushing and exports. While weather and logistics occasionally slowed shipments, the sheer size of the upcoming supply kept a lid on sustained price gains.

Weather risk provided some relief for wheat during the week. A strong arctic cold front moving across the U.S. Plains raised concerns about winterkill in exposed winter wheat areas, especially for HRW and SRW wheat. These fears triggered short-covering and helped winter wheat outperform spring wheat, even as global wheat stocks and Russian export capacity remained ample.

Export activity offered steady, tangible support for nearby prices. Weekly U.S. export inspections showed strong movement of both corn and soybeans, with China accounting for a large share of soybean shipments. Additional private sales of corn and soybeans to destinations such as Colombia and Taiwan helped underpin cash markets and nearby spreads, even while longer-term supply projections stayed bearish.

Biofuel and vegetable oil markets added another layer of complexity. Ethanol production slipped from a record week, but exports and refinery demand remained strong enough to support corn consumption. At the same time, movements in palm oil and shifting biodiesel policies in Asia influenced soybean oil prices, feeding through to soymeal and crush margins and driving short-term volatility across the oilseed complex.

Fund positioning amplified the swings. Early in the week, funds added to corn shorts and trimmed soybean positions, then pulled back as weather risks and export headlines triggered quick rebounds. The result was a week of sharp intraday moves but relatively limited net change by the end, with markets effectively locked in a tug-of-war between demand flashes and rising global supply.

Wheat: March 2026 CBOT wheat benefited from cold-weather concerns in the U.S. Plains and short-covering, with winter wheat outperforming spring wheat. Gains were ultimately capped by large global stocks and strong Russian export competition, keeping rallies selective rather than trend-changing.

Corn: March 2026 CBOT corn traded in a tight range. USDA supply revisions and large global production weighed on sentiment, while strong export inspections, confirmed private sales, and biofuel demand helped slow downside momentum and support nearby prices.

Soybeans: March 2026 CBOT soybeans were the most headline-driven market of the week. Record Chinese buying and strong inspections lifted prices at times, but accelerating Brazilian harvests and higher production and export estimates prevented sustained upside. The soybean market ended the week volatile but largely range-bound.