Core Market Drivers

Soybeans were the clear leader this week, driven by a sharp midweek shift in sentiment following comments from President Trump that China is considering raising U.S. soybean purchases to 20 million metric tons for the current season. That development triggered aggressive buying, reversing earlier caution tied to Brazil’s advancing harvest and giving the soy complex fresh upside momentum.

Despite the price rally, soybean export fundamentals remained mixed. USDA data showed cumulative export commitments at 34.29 MMT, down 20% from last year and only 80% of USDA’s projection, highlighting that optimism is largely forward-looking rather than reflected in confirmed demand. Still, China’s position as the top weekly buyer reinforced the idea that trade policy signals, not near-term flow data, were setting prices.

Soymeal added further support to the soybean complex as strong demand and limited spot availability pushed prices higher through the week. Crush margins improved, helping sustain buying interest even as soy oil lagged amid shifting global vegetable oil demand, particularly India’s move away from sunflower and soyoil toward palm oil.

Wheat markets struggled to build sustained upside despite periodic short-covering rallies. Large global supplies remained the dominant theme, reinforced late in the week by the FAO projecting the global grain stock-to-use ratio at 31.8% for 2025/26, the highest in 25 years. That backdrop capped rallies even as U.S. export commitments ran 17% ahead of last year.

Additional pressure on wheat came from supply data in key exporting regions. Russia reported its 2025 wheat crop at 93 MMT with early indications pointing to favorable 2026 crop conditions, while Canadian wheat stocks rose 5.9% year over year. Together, these signals strengthened the perception of ample global availability.

Corn trade was comparatively balanced throughout the week. While futures fluctuated day to day, the market found support in strong cumulative export commitments, which reached 58.735 MMT, 31% above the same period last year and ahead of the average pace. That strength helped offset softer weekly sales figures and limited downside risk.

Ethanol remained a key pillar for corn, even as production dipped midweek due to winter storm disruptions. Lower ethanol output was partially countered by declining stocks and record December corn use for ethanol, keeping demand expectations constructive and preventing deeper price erosion.

South American weather stayed firmly in focus as a cross-market influence. Heavy rains in central Brazil supported late soybeans but raised concerns over harvest pace and logistics, while persistent dryness in Argentina continued to threaten yield potential for both corn and soybeans. The mixed outlook kept weather risk embedded in prices without fully dominating trade.

Positioning data added another layer to weekly dynamics. Managed money reduced net short positions in wheat and corn, while expanding net long exposure in soybeans, confirming that fund flows followed the same leadership pattern seen in price action.

Crop Futures Wrap

Wheat:
March 2026 CBOT wheat ended the week at $5.29 3/4/bu, down on the week after midweek gains faded. The market was pressured by record global stock projections, rising Canadian inventories, and improving Russian crop conditions, despite better year-on-year U.S. export commitments.

Corn:
March 2026 CBOT corn closed the week at $4.30 1/4/bu, posting a modest weekly gain. Strong cumulative export commitments and resilient ethanol demand helped stabilize prices, even as traders turned cautious ahead of WASDE and global supply data limited upside.

Soybeans:
March 2026 CBOT soybeans finished the week at $11.15 1/4/bu, sharply higher week over week. Prices were driven by renewed optimism around increased Chinese purchases and strong soymeal demand, outweighing slower cumulative export pace and rising South American supply.