Core Market Drivers
Grain markets began the week defensively as traders positioned ahead of the USDA’s monthly WASDE report. With limited appetite to add risk, wheat and corn prices eased despite generally solid export shipment data, while soybeans found selective support from confirmed China buying.
Soybeans drew the most attention after USDA confirmed a private export sale of 264,000 metric tons to China. The announcement reinforced expectations that Chinese demand remains active, helping futures close higher even as cash values softened and meal markets weakened.
Export inspections for soybeans painted a mixed picture. Weekly shipments totaled 1.136 MMT, down from the prior week and slightly below last year, keeping cumulative marketing-year shipments 34.4% behind the same period a year ago. This divergence highlighted the gap between forward demand optimism and current export flow.
Wheat markets remained under pressure despite a sharp rebound in weekly export shipments. USDA data showed wheat inspections surged to 580,130 MT, up more than 75% from the previous week, lifting marketing-year exports 18.36% above last year. Even so, futures struggled as traders focused on ample global supplies and expectations for slightly higher world wheat stocks.
Anticipation of the WASDE capped wheat buying interest. While U.S. ending stocks are expected to decline modestly to 918 mbu, world wheat stocks are projected to edge higher, reinforcing the narrative of comfortable global availability and limiting upside.
Corn futures also closed lower as traders balanced stronger export shipments against bearish supply expectations. Weekly corn inspections rose to 1.308 MMT, and cumulative shipments are now nearly 47% above last year, but this strength was largely priced in ahead of WASDE.
Attention in corn shifted toward South America. Brazil’s corn production is expected to be revised higher, and early harvest progress along with faster second-crop planting reinforced expectations of ample future supply, weighing on prices.
Weather remained a secondary influence on Monday’s trade. Favorable conditions in Europe and improving precipitation prospects in parts of South America supported longer-term supply outlooks, while the absence of near-term weather threats in U.S. wheat areas reduced risk premiums.
| CBOT | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago | Contract | USD/mt | +/- |
| Wheat | March | 194.28 | -0.37 |
| Corn | March | 168.79 | -0.59 |
| Soybeans | March | 408.13 | -1.65 |
| Soymeal | March | 328.27 | -6.39 |
| EURONEXT | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris | Contract | EUR/mt | +/- |
| Wheat | March | 189.50 | -0.50 |
| Corn | March | 189.50 | -0.50 |
| Rapeseed | May | 489.25 | +1.50 |
Crop Futures Wrap
Wheat:
March 2026 CBOT wheat closed at $5.28 3/4, down 1 cent. Prices weakened despite a sharp jump in export shipments, as traders focused on ample global supplies and positioned cautiously ahead of WASDE.
Corn:
March 2026 CBOT corn settled at $4.28 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents. Strong export inspections and year-on-year shipment gains were outweighed by expectations for steady U.S. stocks and higher Brazilian production.
Soybeans:
March 2026 CBOT soybeans closed at $11.10 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents. Gains were supported by a confirmed private sale to China, offsetting weaker cash prices and slower cumulative export shipments.