Core Market Drivers
Grain markets started Tuesday with a cautious recovery following Monday’s mixed close, as attention centers on the USDA’s WASDE report due later today. With expectations for limited changes to U.S. balance sheets, early trade reflects positioning rather than conviction, favoring modest gains in corn and soybeans.
Wheat is showing turnaround trade this morning, with winter wheat contracts ticking higher after Monday’s softness. Strong U.S. export shipments, which surged to 580,130 MT last week, continue to underpin the market, even as expectations for slightly higher global wheat stocks temper bullish follow-through.
Weather in the U.S. Plains is adding a supportive undertone for wheat. Forecasts calling for rains in the southern Plains are expected to improve soil moisture for dormant winter wheat, reducing downside risk and supporting early-session stability.
Corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher in the front months, rebounding from Monday’s losses. Export inspections remain robust, with marketing-year shipments now nearly 47% above last year, helping offset caution tied to expectations for higher Brazilian corn production in the WASDE.
South American fundamentals remain a key focus for corn. Brazil’s first corn harvest and second-crop planting are running slightly ahead of last year, reinforcing expectations for ample global supply and limiting the scope of rallies despite firm U.S. export performance.
Soybeans are leading early gains, trading 3 to 5 1/2 cents higher after Monday’s modest advance. A confirmed private export sale of 264,000 MT of soybeans to China has reinforced near-term demand optimism, keeping futures supported despite weaker cumulative shipments for the marketing year.
Soy oil continues to provide strength within the soy complex, trading sharply higher on Monday and offering spillover support this morning. In contrast, soymeal remains under pressure, reflecting shifting demand dynamics within the crush complex.
Broader macro and weather signals are largely neutral to supportive. Improving precipitation prospects in South America following recent rains and the absence of cold risks across China are easing production concerns, while traders await clearer direction from the WASDE.
Crop Futures Wrap
Wheat:
March 2026 CBOT wheat is trading at $5.28 3/4, up 1/4 cent early Tuesday after closing Monday down 1 cent. Support comes from strong export shipments and improving Plains moisture, with global stock expectations limiting upside ahead of WASDE.
Corn:
March 2026 CBOT corn is at $4.28 3/4, up 2 cents in early trade after Monday’s 1 1/2 cent decline. Strong export inspections are supporting prices, while anticipated higher Brazilian production remains a headwind.
Soybeans:
March 2026 CBOT soybeans are trading at $11.10 3/4, up 5 cents after closing Monday down 4 1/2 cents. Early gains are driven by confirmed China buying and continued strength in soy oil, as traders await WASDE guidance.