Core Market Drivers
Soybeans are leading early gains Thursday, with nearby contracts up 10 to 11 cents after modest gains on Wednesday. Fresh CONAB data lifted Brazil’s soybean crop estimate to 177.98 MMT, a 1.86 MMT increase, while Rosario raised Argentina’s crop to 48 MMT. Despite higher South American production estimates, traders appear focused on export pace and tightening oilseed balances within the vegetable oil complex.
Brazilian soybean exports remain a key demand anchor. ANEC projects February soybean shipments at 11.71 MMT, up from the prior week’s estimate, underscoring strong global flow despite heavy rains complicating logistics in central Brazil. Improved weather over the next 10 days could accelerate harvest progress and safrinha corn planting.
Corn is fractionally higher Thursday morning after a softer Wednesday close. CONAB trimmed Brazil’s total corn crop by 0.42 MMT to 138.45 MMT, with the second crop reduced by 1.2 MMT. The downward revision offers mild support, offsetting broader expectations for ample global supply.
Export demand remains central for corn sentiment. Traders are looking for between 0.6 and 1.1 MMT in old crop U.S. sales in the week ending February 5. A confirmed 230,560 MT private sale earlier this week reinforces underlying demand strength, though competition from Brazil remains intense.
Ethanol data continues to influence corn. U.S. production rebounded to 1.11 million barrels per day, while stocks rose to 25.247 million barrels. Strong processing rates support corn usage, but rising inventories and softer exports temper bullish enthusiasm.
Wheat is trading near unchanged following Wednesday’s strong rally. Chicago March futures closed at $5.37 1/4, up 9 cents, as short covering and positioning ahead of export sales drove gains. Open interest declined sharply, suggesting funds trimmed bearish exposure.
European supply revisions are moderating wheat enthusiasm. Expana cut the 2026/27 EU wheat crop estimate by 0.5 MMT to 128.3 MMT, while 2025/26 exports were reduced to 27.6 MMT. French wheat exports outside the EU remain steady at 7.2 MMT, though stocks were revised higher, keeping the supply outlook balanced.
Weather in the U.S. Plains remains supportive but not aggressively bullish. Warm conditions and scattered precipitation chances limit winterkill risk, though soil moisture deficits persist in southern winter wheat regions. Markets will watch whether forecast systems deliver meaningful relief.
Vegetable oil markets continue to shape oilseed trade. Debate over U.S. E15 policy and ethanol blending rules could alter biofuel demand dynamics, while Malaysian palm oil prices remain rangebound. Longer-term palm output concerns contrast with expectations of rising soybean supplies, creating mixed cross-commodity signals.
Global trade headlines add another layer of uncertainty. Reports of a potential extension of the U.S.-China trade truce and Indian tariff concessions on soybean oil are influencing demand expectations. Meanwhile, China’s anti-dumping extension on Canadian canola keeps oilseed trade policy in focus.
Crop Futures Wrap
Wheat:
March 2026 CBOT wheat is trading at $5.37 1/4, unchanged early Thursday after closing Wednesday up 9 cents. Gains are consolidating ahead of USDA export sales, with European supply revisions and Plains weather keeping trade balanced.
Corn:
March 2026 CBOT corn is at $4.27 1/2, up 1/2 cent in early trade following Wednesday’s 1 1/4 cent decline. Brazil’s trimmed crop estimate and firm ethanol production offer support, though global supply remains comfortable.
Soybeans:
March 2026 CBOT soybeans are trading at $11.24, up 10 1/2 cents after Wednesday’s 1 1/2 cent gain. Strong export projections and resilient crush demand are driving early strength despite higher South American production estimates.