Wheat

Chicago SRW Dec ’25 started Wednesday around $5.21½/bu (Tuesday settle $5.20¼, “currently up 1¼¢” early), with winter wheats steadier and spring wheat a touch softer. U.S. spring harvest reached 85% by Sept 7, one point ahead of normal, while EU customs tallies show 3.2 MMT of soft-wheat exports since July 1 versus 5.05 MMT a year ago; Canada’s July-end wheat stocks fell 22.1% y/y to 4.11 MMT, underscoring mixed exportables into Q4.

Corn

Chicago Dec ’25 opened near $4.18¾/bu (Tuesday settle $4.19¾, “currently down 1¢”), retracing part of Monday’s gain as Crop Progress posted 74% dent, 25% mature, 4% harvested and conditions eased to 68% G/E. ANEC lifted Brazil’s September export view to 6.96 MMT, while a South Korean importer tendered 140,000 MT, keeping U.S. basis/rivers in focus ahead of Friday’s Crop Production report.

Soybeans

Chicago Nov ’25 began around $10.30½/bu (Tuesday settle $10.31¼, “currently down ¾¢”), with products mixed after meal’s bounce and soyoil’s dip. NASS showed 97% pod-set and 21% dropping leaves; StatsCan pegged end-July canola stocks at 1.597 MMT (−50.5% y/y). Brazil’s September soy exports are seen at 7.43 MMT, while Malaysian palm inventories rose to 2.20 MMT in August, shaping crush spreads and veg-oil relative value.

Global drivers for today’s session

The U.S. Supreme Court will hear challenges to the administration’s broad emergency-tariff program on an accelerated November timetable, keeping levies in place for now and injecting policy volatility into cross-commodity trade. A ruling could materially reset the U.S. effective tariff rate and rewire ag import/export incentives into 2026.

Weather pivots back to warmth across most of North America over the next two weeks after early chills, with a split precipitation pattern; Europe faces severe storms over Italy/Balkans that threaten local harvests, while the Black Sea trends drier—helpful for fieldwork but a risk for late corn finishes and winter-wheat establishment. Consensus guidance continues to point toward a weak La Niña later this year, a configuration with notable crop-belt implications.

In oilseeds, Malaysia’s August palm oil stocks rose to 2.20 MMT as output increased and exports softened, pressuring nearby palm even as relative value versus soyoil/palm oil continues to steer Asian product spreads. Chinese ag boards opened softer for soy complex, with palm and soyoil mixed.

Russia’s wheat FOBs continued to ease—$228–$230/MT for 12.5% protein late Sept–early Oct—an unusual September downdraft tied to currency dynamics and farmer selling strategies; at the same time, domestic rouble prices steadied and the 2025 wheat crop outlook was nudged up to 86.1 MMT, preserving export heft even as September loadings may trail last year.

Canada held its 2025/26 wheat production view at 35.0 MMT as harvest advances through the Prairies, with above-average temperatures and modest late-period rains likely to influence the pace but not the headline. End-July canola stocks at 1.597 MMT underscore a tighter oilseed cushion into the biodiesel-driven Q4 demand window.

Brazil remains the volume swing-factor: ANEC now sees September shipments at 7.43 MMT soy, 2.11 MMT soymeal, and 6.96 MMT corn; planning documents from the energy ministry flag as much as US$20B in biofuel investments by 2035, with ethanol supply up ~30% and biodiesel obligations stepping higher—structural demand that supports crush and acreage economics.

On the flow/inspection front, today’s EIA survey points to U.S. ethanol production near 1.078m b/d with stocks around 22.567m bbl—levels that have recently underpinned basis and processor margins even as Mississippi River levels and barge costs remain a watch-item for fall logistics.

Trade lanes continued to reshuffle: Bunge was slated to finish loading 30,000 t of Argentine soymeal to China at San Lorenzo’s T6 terminal—the first such cargo confirmed back on-stream—while corporate maneuvering around Argentina’s distressed Vicentin assets drew in majors (Cargill/Grassi interest; Bunge/LDC also circling), a reminder that crush capacity ownership can redirect regional product flows quickly.