Wheat

The wheat market extended losses on Wednesday, pressured across all three U.S. exchanges. Chicago SRW December 2025 futures ended at $5.15/bu, down 5¼ cents, while Kansas City HRW fell between 1 and 4 cents and Minneapolis spring wheat slid 7–8 cents. Deliveries added another six overnight, weighing on sentiment. Weekly U.S. export sales, due Thursday, are expected at 300,000–650,000 MT, as traders await Friday’s WASDE for confirmation that 2025/26 U.S. ending stocks hover near 865 mbu. Internationally, SovEcon lifted Russia’s wheat harvest outlook to 87.2 MMT, reinforcing expectations of heavy Black Sea exports.

Corn

Corn futures also softened midweek, retreating 2–4 cents as December 2025 settled at $4.17/bu. Cash corn slipped to $3.72¼ nationally. Traders positioned ahead of Friday’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, with surveys pointing to a possible 2.6 bpa cut in yield to 186.2 bpa and output near 16.516 bbu. EIA data showed ethanol production up to 1.105m b/d, stocks edging higher to 22.837m bbl, while export sales projections for the latest week ranged between 0.9 and 2.4 MMT. A South Korean tender for 140,000 MT and Rosario’s 61 MMT forecast for Argentina’s 2025/26 corn crop kept the international outlook in view.

Soybeans

Soybeans turned lower into Wednesday’s close, with November 2025 futures slipping 6 cents to $10.25¼/bu. National average cash beans fell to $9.47½. Soymeal dropped $2.80–$5.30, though soyoil bucked the trend with gains of 36–54 points. Analysts anticipate Thursday’s weekly U.S. export sales at 0.4–1.6 MMT, while Friday’s Crop Production report is expected to trim soybean yield modestly to 53.3 bpa, leaving output at 4.271 bbu. The Rosario Grain Exchange pegged Argentina’s 2025/26 soybean harvest at 47 MMT, down 2.5 MMT from last year on reduced acreage, adding another layer of supply-side uncertainty.

Global Forces Driving Midweek Markets

Financial markets kept a close eye on policy turbulence, but attention within agriculture shifted toward trade imbalances and shifting demand structures. The U.S. agricultural trade deficit, which widened to a record $33.6B in the first seven months of the year, continued to cast a long shadow. The gap underscored how stronger imports and redirected Chinese buying toward Brazil are reshaping U.S. competitiveness. Even with solid week-to-week sales, long-term positioning looks more fragile.

In Europe and the Black Sea, regional balances moved in different directions. EU customs data showed soft wheat exports totaling 3.2 MMT since July, well behind last year’s 5.05 MMT. Meanwhile, Russia’s farmers leaned into export programs as SovEcon lifted its harvest outlook again, suggesting exports will remain heavy into the winter. At the same time, Ukraine’s newly imposed 10% oilseed export duty froze rapeseed and soybean flows, creating near-term dislocations for crushers and meal buyers across the region.

South America added another layer of divergence. Brazil’s soybean exports in August hit 9.33 MMT, a record for the month, while early planting in Paraná and a sharp pickup in summer corn seeding signaled strong early-season momentum. Argentina, by contrast, continued to wrestle with structural strain. Rosario projected a 47 MMT soybean crop for 2025/26, down 2.5 MMT from last year as acreage contracts. At the same time, maneuvering around Vicentin’s distressed assets highlighted how crush ownership could redefine South American flows.

The oilseed complex was also shaped by developments in Asia. Malaysian palm inventories rose to 2.20 MMT in August, reflecting softer exports and stronger production. Prices retreated, though relative value against soyoil and palm still steered product spreads. Chinese soybean imports, meanwhile, reached a record 12.28 MMT in August, but with domestic consumption shifting away from premium proteins, traders remained wary about how the mix of demand—not just volume—will influence global flows through Q4.

Canada’s numbers reinforced the tightening theme in oilseeds. July-end canola stocks dropped by more than half year-on-year to 1.597 MMT, reducing the cushion heading into a biodiesel-heavy demand season. Wheat balances looked steadier, with the country holding its 2025/26 production outlook at 35.0 MMT as harvest advanced through the Prairies.

In the U.S., energy-linked demand helped stabilize the picture. Ethanol production climbed to 1.105m b/d, while stocks ticked up above 22.8m bbl. With Mississippi River levels still problematic, basis remained a watchpoint, but processor margins stayed supported. Export tenders from South Korea and steady inquiries from Mexico helped provide some near-term demand visibility.

Weather risks didn’t disappear but evolved. North America is expected to warm again over the next two weeks, accelerating harvest, while Europe braced for storms in Italy and the Balkans that could dent yields locally. The Black Sea stayed largely dry, a benefit for fieldwork but a risk for corn filling and winter-wheat establishment. India’s monsoon, 9% above normal, bolstered reservoirs ahead of wheat planting, strengthening foodgrain supply confidence into year-end.

Finally, structural investments kept long-term demand in focus. Brazil’s energy ministry highlighted plans for up to US$20B in biofuel investments by 2035, with ethanol output projected to rise 30% and biodiesel mandates stepping higher. These commitments reinforced that policy-led demand growth will remain a defining driver for acreage and crush economics across the decade.