Wheat

Chicago SRW Dec ’25 started Thursday near $5.13¾/bu, easing from Wednesday’s $5.15 close as the complex extended losses across U.S. exchanges. Traders eyed weekly export sales guidance of 300–650k MT and Friday’s WASDE, with U.S. ending stocks expected to hover near 865 mbu. Fresh context came from steady downgrades in EU wheat exports and a tighter Canadian stocks read, keeping Q4 exportables mixed as open interest climbed midweek.

Corn

Chicago Dec ’25 opened around $4.18¼/bu, a modest bid versus Wednesday’s $4.17 settle as the market positioned ahead of Friday’s Crop Production and WASDE updates. Consensus points to a yield trim toward ~186.2 bpa and output near 16.516 bbu, while the latest EIA print showed ethanol output up to 1.105m b/d and stocks at 22.837m bbl, a combo that continues to underpin basis despite low river levels.

Soybeans

Chicago Nov ’25 began the session near $10.31¾/bu, rebounding from Wednesday’s $10.25¼ close as futures posted 5–6¢ gains early. With analysts looking for 0.4–1.6 MMT of new-crop sales and a small yield shave to ~53.3 bpa (production ~4.271 bbu) in Friday’s reports, the board weighed tighter Canadian canola stocks and heavier Malaysian palm inventories—key inputs for crush spreads and veg-oil relative value.

Global currents setting today’s tone

Biofuels policy took center stage. A White House review of an EPA plan would require large refiners to reallocate only about half (or less) of gallons waived for small refineries, potentially leaving ~550 million gallons of demand unfilled and pressuring RIN prices. The compromise underscores the enduring clash between Big Oil and the farm lobby—and could ripple through corn grind and veg-oil demand into 2026.

China moved to curb pork oversupply, summoning the country’s biggest pig breeders to Beijing on Sept. 16 to present sow-cut targets and output plans. With wholesale pork down ~25% y/y, the policy push aims to stabilize prices; for grains, a protein mix shift can alter soymeal and feedgrain pull as demand migrates across species and value tiers.

Black Sea supply grew heavier on paper. SovEcon and IKAR raised Russia’s 2025/26 wheat crop to around 87–87.2 MMT, citing record yields in Siberia/Urals and pushing export ideas to ~44 MMT. FOB 12.5% eased to $228–$230/MT for late Sep/early Oct, an unusual September downdraft linked to currency and farmer selling—yet Russia’s overall export heft remains formidable into winter.

South America split the difference. Argentina’s corn is on track for a record 61 MMT in 2025/26 as acres swing from soy, while soybean area is set to contract (Rosario/BAGE), trimming soy output risk-on the margin. Brazil, meanwhile, is cementing its swing-supplier role: ANEC pegs September shipments at 6.96 MMT corn, 7.43 MMT soy, and 2.11 MMT soymeal, with Brasília’s energy plans flagging up to US$20B in biofuel investments by 2035.

Trade lanes kept reshuffling. China approved Brazilian sorghum, with first cargoes possible within ~60 days—another outlet that arrives as U.S. sorghum sales to China have slumped 97% y/y. The move adds a fresh valve in China’s feed complex and marginally diversifies Brazil’s coarse-grain export slate.

Domestic U.S. ethanol remained constructive. DOE reported stocks up 1.2% to 22.837m bbl and production at 1.105m b/d, levels that have recently supported processor margins even as Mississippi River levels and barge costs complicate fall logistics. Today’s export-sales ranges set the near-term demand bar at 0.9–2.4 MMT for corn and 0.4–1.6 MMT for soybeans.

Weather leaned mixed but mostly favorable for harvest cadence. North America trends warmer into mid-September after early chills, with selective rains splitting Plains/Midwest; the EU stays wet—good for immature summer crops and winter-wheat seedbeds—while the Black Sea sees limited moisture, helpful for fieldwork but a risk to late corn fill and stand-up of winter wheat. Australia faces helpful eastern showers but frost risk; Southeast Asia’s rains favor palm and robusta.

Structural biofuel supply is broadening in Brazil. Inpasa, teaming with Amaggi, will build at least three corn ethanol plants in Mato Grosso and push decentralized biofuel supply into the North/Northeast, with sorghum supplementing feedstock in climatically variable zones. Government projections see corn-ethanol output +60% by 2035 to 16.3 bln liters—supportive for Brazil’s corn balance and regional basis dynamics.