Wheat

Chicago SRW December ’25 firmed into the bell, settling at $5.25 per bushel, up 1½¢ on the day. The bounce came as traders digested a marginally friendlier U.S. WASDE—higher export projection and a lighter carry—against a heavier global balance sheet, with larger crops flagged across Russia, the EU, Canada, Ukraine, and Australia. Positioning added a tailwind: after funds increased net shorts into last Tuesday, late-week strength and Monday’s follow-through hinted at some short-covering, even as HRW open interest continued to climb. Crop Progress showed 94% of U.S. spring wheat harvested (2 points ahead of normal) and winter wheat 11% planted, a whisker under the five-year pace. Export inspections were robust at 775k t, led by Mexico, Indonesia, and South Korea, pushing marketing-year loadings ~12% ahead of last year.

Corn

Corn eased back from Friday’s rally, with December ’25 closing at $4.23¼ per bushel, down 6¾¢. The market absorbed USDA’s yield trim to 186.7 bpa but higher acres, netting a 16.814 bbu crop and 2.11 bbu carryout—figures that kept a ceiling on board strength despite firmer national cash prints and active inspections (1.512 MMT) led by Mexico and Japan. Fieldwork remains a swing factor: denting reached 85%, 41% is mature, and 7% is harvested—right on the five-year pace—while conditions slipped to 67% good/excellent as the Brugler500 fell to 372. A 149k t flash sale to “unknown” added a note of demand, but river logistics and basis risk stayed front-of-mind as Mississippi levels dipped and barge costs climbed.

Soybeans

Soybeans softened, with November ’25 ending at $10.42¾ per bushel, down 3½¢, as traders squared positions ahead of NOPA and weighed a slightly higher USDA yield (53.5 bpa) and 4.3 bbu production. The crush backdrop remained constructive: August NOPA crush hit a record for the month at 189.8 mbu, while end-month soyoil stocks fell from July, helping support product margins even as futures slipped. Crop Progress showed 41% dropping leaves and 5% harvested; conditions eased to 63% G/E. On the cash side, national beans dipped to $9.66, but inspections accelerated to 804k t with Italy, Bangladesh, and Mexico prominent—evidence that early-season flow is building even with new-crop commitments historically light.

Global drivers moving the tape

Policy signaling in Washington kept biofuels in the frame. Following WASDE’s larger corn surplus, the Renewable Fuels Association renewed its push for nationwide E15, arguing that expanded ethanol blending is the fastest lever to absorb supply—an advocacy beat that helped frame corn’s demand debate despite Monday’s softer board.

USDA housekeeping took a step forward. The department confirmed October 23 as the launch for its upgraded export-sales reporting system, with the first weekly report due October 30—an important credibility reset after the 2022 false start, and a reminder that timely visibility can jolt short-term price action and interior basis.

Weather and logistics stayed intertwined. Warmer North America should speed harvest, but recurring showers in the Northern Plains and Midwest risk field delays; Europe would welcome a breather after weeks of rain; and the Black Sea remains drier than ideal for late corn fill and winter-wheat stand-up. Meanwhile, Mississippi River flows weakened again, with last week’s grain shipments slipping to 361k t as barge rates rose—pressure points for basis into October.

North Africa kept buying—and kept it Black Sea. Egypt’s Mostakbal Misr booked six veg-oil cargoes and north of 600k t of wheat for Sep–Oct, largely from Russia, Romania, Bulgaria, and Ukraine, reinforcing the basin’s pricing grip on Mediterranean demand as FOB competition stays intense.

Europe’s supply bar moved higher. A fresh research update lifted EU soft-wheat output to a record ~136.1 MMT for 2025/26—nearly 20% above last season—but flagged sluggish EU exports amid heavy Russian competition and limited Chinese demand, raising the stakes for EU pricing and Q4 logistics.

Brazil’s signal was “more of the same—just more.” CONAB raised 2024/25 corn to 139.67 MMT and soy to 171.5 MMT; CEPEA noted domestic corn firmness on active spot buying and seller restraint; and, unusually, crusher profit split was near parity—soymeal ~51% and soyoil ~49%—as biodiesel demand lifted oil values to their highest since last November.

China reshaped the demand map on paper. Beijing halved its 2024/25 corn import view to 3 MMT amid tariff frictions and quota constraints while lifting soybean import ideas to 104 MMT on improved crush margins; separately, state wheat procurement topped 100 MMT, and a Taiwan delegation began a U.S. tour to sign intent letters for soy, corn, wheat, and beef.

Veg-oil flows shifted toward palm. India’s August edible-oil imports climbed to a one-year high at 1.62 MMT, with palm up 15.8% m/m to 991k t as refiners stocked ahead of festivals; at the same time, Canada reported constructive talks with China over steep provisional canola duties, and Brazil won clearance to export beef tallow to Singapore—another outlet tied to biofuel economics.

Black Sea export signals stayed decisive. Ukraine’s season-to-date grain exports were ~40% below last year—wheat −24%, corn −64%—underscoring corridor frictions and quality splits even as early-grain harvest trailed last year only marginally; the basin’s pricing power and freight spreads remain central to Q4 competitiveness.