Wheat opened Thursday with a steadier tone after Wednesday’s pullback. December ’25 CBOT wheat started the day around $5.30¾/bu, modestly firmer versus yesterday’s settle at $5.28¼ as overnight trade added roughly 2½ cents. Kansas City contracts were also a touch higher while Minneapolis spring wheat lagged, with traders eyeing this morning’s U.S. Export Sales print and noting FranceAgriMer’s lighter French ending stocks at 3.64 MMT and Canada’s upgraded 2025 wheat crop near 36.6 MMT.
Corn began the session slightly softer. December ’25 corn ticked in near $4.26½/bu, about a quarter-cent below Wednesday’s close at $4.26¾. Sentiment stayed cautious after government data showed weekly U.S. ethanol output easing to 1.055 million bpd and stocks slipping to 22.602 million barrels, with markets awaiting export sales estimates that center around 0.6–1.9 MMT for the week. Canada’s corn output projection held near 15.5 MMT, up 1% year on year.
Soybeans opened weaker for a second day. November ’25 beans traded near $10.40¾/bu early, about 3 cents under Wednesday’s $10.43¾ settle, as the complex digested expectations for 0.4–1.5 MMT in weekly sales alongside a firmer Canadian canola outlook at ~20.0 MMT and lower Canadian soybean production near 7.13 MMT. Product spreads stayed in focus after soyoil gave back Tuesday’s gains and soymeal slipped again into midweek.
The European Union and Indonesia concluded a trade deal after nearly a decade of talks, a move that could reshape flows of palm oil and related agri-products into the bloc and diversify EU supply chains. While the pact still requires approvals on both sides, the agreement lands amid heightened scrutiny over the EU’s deforestation regulation and could recalibrate oilseed and vegoil trade routes once in force.
U.S. energy data showed ethanol inventories falling about 1% to 22.602 million barrels as plant output slipped to 1.055 million bpd, beneath survey averages. The softer production pace and leaner stocks keep a cautious bid under corn demand expectations heading into today’s export sales report, even as broader biofuel-policy uncertainty lingers.
Canada’s latest model-based update nudged 2025 total wheat production to roughly 36.6 MMT, up 1.9% year on year, on improved yield assumptions, while canola edged to ~20.0 MMT. The firmer North American supply backdrop—paired with stable to higher Black Sea availability—adds weight to Q4 export competition and caps rallies on weather-only support.
Russia reportedly held multiple rounds of talks with major traders to accelerate a sluggish export start, discussing measures such as rail subsidies to ports. With domestic prices attracting grain and the floating export tax still in place, Moscow’s push to meet targets could bring additional FOB pressure if shipments meaningfully accelerate into late Q3 and Q4.
Brazil’s soy moratorium remains in force after a judge rejected a farmer group’s challenge, maintaining restrictions on purchases from recently deforested Amazon areas. The ruling sustains ESG constraints that global crushers and traders must navigate, shaping origination strategies and potentially supporting premiums for compliant beans.
Taiwan’s flour millers signed a letter of intent to buy about 3.6 MMT of U.S. wheat between 2026 and 2029, valued near $1.3 billion. The forward-looking demand signal bolsters U.S. export visibility in out-years and helps offset near-term softness elsewhere as buyers diversify supply.
China called on top pig producers to scale back output and manage slaughter weights around 120 kg, while also discussing reduced sow herds and tighter financing for expansion. Any sustained contraction in the hog pipeline would temper Chinese feed demand growth, with potential ripple effects for global corn and soymeal trade.
U.S. policy chatter intensified as officials floated using tariff revenues to fund farmer aid and lawmakers pressed for additional support by year-end amid low crop prices and trade frictions. Fresh subsidy talk can cushion farm incomes—and influence acreage and marketing decisions—while also complicating trade dynamics into 2026/27.
Early-season crop narratives elsewhere stayed mixed: analysts held Argentina wheat around 19.8 MMT as brief early-September dryness aided fields before new rains, while U.S. 2026/27 wheat projections pointed to smaller production near 51.7 MMT on reduced area despite constructive yield prospects. These diverging outlooks underscore why weather into Southern Hemisphere planting and Northern Hemisphere autumn fieldwork remains pivotal for price direction.