Wheat opened Friday steadier after Thursday’s dip. December ’25 CBOT wheat started the day around $5.25/bu (≈¾¢ over yesterday’s $5.24¼ close), with Kansas City marginally firmer and Minneapolis lagging. Traders balanced firmer EU/UK production upgrades against lingering Black Sea supply confidence and a three-week high in U.S. export sales that pointed to improving demand into Q4.

Corn began firmer. December ’25 corn opened near $4.26½/bu (about 2¾¢ over Thursday’s $4.23¾ settle) as fresh weekly export sales outpaced last year’s same week and Mexico featured again as a key buyer. Focus stayed on Brazil’s evolving 2025/26 balance sheet and U.S. river logistics, with harvest pressure still present but tempered by improving demand signals.

Soybeans ticked higher at the bell. November ’25 soybeans started around $10.42½/bu (≈5¢ over the prior $10.37½ close), supported by early gains in the complex even as product spreads narrowed and weekly U.S. sales, while stronger week-on-week, continued to trail last year’s pace. Markets kept a close eye on Brazil’s acreage expansion and planting cadence.

China stepped aggressively into Australian canola. Trade sources indicated COFCO bought up to nine 60,000-t cargoes (≈540,000 t), following Beijing’s preliminary 75.8% anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola that effectively froze those flows. Loadings are slated for Nov–Jan, underscoring China’s ability to diversify supply, though Australia’s smaller crop base may limit volumes versus Canada.

Global balance sheets leaned heavier. The IGC raised 2025/26 total grain stocks to 606 MMT (from 597), lifting wheat to 270 MMT and keeping corn at 294 MMT, while trimming soy to 83 MMT. In parallel, Coceral lifted the EU+UK harvest to 306.8 MMT, with soft wheat at a decade high on better-than-expected yields in France, Germany, Poland and SE Europe; barley also improved, while corn was revised down on southeastern EU weather issues. Russia said it has reaped 114 MMT of grain so far (incl. 84 MMT wheat), maintaining a 135 MMT harvest outlook, and Ukraine reported 62% completion with 29.8 MMT already threshed. France’s corn harvest reached 5%, with 62% of crop rated good/very good. Western Australia’s GIWA nudged wheat to 11.8 MMT but warned heat could “peel off” as much as 1 MMT if it hits vulnerable crops next week.

Brazil remained the swing force. CONAB projected a record 177.7 MMT soybean crop for 2025/26 (+3.6% y/y) on +3.7% area to 49.08 Mha, while trimming corn to 138.3 MMT amid yield normalization despite +3.5% corn area. Fieldwork has started across southern Brazil on good moisture; Mato Grosso is still waiting for a consistent wet-season onset, and many producers may hold soy planting until October. Argentina accelerated corn planting to 6.2% ahead of a stormy weekend; wheat conditions remain 97.1% normal-to-excellent, with harvest set for Nov–Jan.

Weather and logistics split the U.S. harvest path. Slow-moving systems are spreading showers across the Northern Plains, Central/Southern Plains, and Midwest, delaying corn/soy dry-down and early cutting but aiding winter-wheat establishment and Mississippi River replenishment. The Delta stays the opposite: recent dryness has lowered river levels, though incoming systems next week should bring needed rain. USDA also flagged a sharp week-over-week rise in drought coverage for U.S. crops (corn 25% vs 13%, soy 36% vs 22%). On the river, Mississippi barge shipments fell to 252k tons w/w, with corn and soybean volumes each down ~28% and St. Louis barge rates up to $24.54/short ton.

Trade flows and demand cues mixed but supportive at the margin. Weekly U.S. export sales showed wheat at 377,459 t (3-week high; Philippines led), corn at 1.23 MMT (Mexico, South Korea, Japan), and soybeans at 923,018 t (Mexico, Spain; China absent). Separately, Taiwan signaled multi-year U.S. ag purchases earlier in the week, and a U.S. sorghum tender for Kenya (26,700 t) added a humanitarian trade note.

Policy and vegoil cross-currents stayed in focus. Malaysia kept its CPO export tax at 10% for October, a headwind for FOB competitiveness if prices stay elevated. U.S. RIN generation eased in August (ethanol D6 ~1.22 bn, biodiesel D4 546 m) versus July, while Malaysian palm futures slipped and China’s ag futures showed pressure in soyoil/palm. The Philippines may extend its rice import ban up to 30 days, and a joint satellite analysis estimated ~220k ha of Pakistan rice were flooded since Aug 1—though global rice supply is seen stable on strong India/Thailand/Vietnam exports.

Sustainability and biotech signals added structural color. China approved 98 GM varieties (2 soy, 96 corn), while Brazil’s CJ Selecta aims to double RTRS-certified GMO soy purchases by 2027 and already sources 100% of its non-GMO soy under ProTerra. RTRS-certified output topped 6.8 MMT in 2024 (Brazil ≈80%), with SPC carbon-footprint figures highlighted as processors prepare for the EU’s deforestation rules and chain-of-custody demands.