Grain markets ended Tuesday under broad pressure as traders digested the confirmation that China has completed its pledged purchase of roughly 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans. While the news validated strong state-led demand from Sinograin and COFCO, it also signaled that incremental Chinese buying of U.S. beans is unlikely in the near term unless prices become competitive with South American supplies. This shifted market psychology from demand reassurance to demand exhaustion, particularly for soybeans.

South American developments reinforced the bearish tone. Brazil’s soybean harvest continues to accelerate, reaching about 2% complete, ahead of both last year and the five-year average, with especially strong early results in Mato Grosso. Private analysts raised Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean production estimate to around 179.28 MMT, reinforcing expectations of record output and ample export availability in coming months, a clear headwind for soybean prices.

Corn markets also struggled to find support as global supply projections remained front and center. USDA and Cepea data continue to point to rising world corn production and inventories, led by the United States, while Brazil’s Conab maintained a large 2025/26 production outlook despite a slight year-on-year decline. Weak domestic demand in Brazil and flexible producer selling kept international corn values under pressure, limiting upside follow-through.

Wheat prices weakened despite active global tender activity. Saudi Arabia and Algeria booked significant wheat volumes in recent tenders, and U.S. wheat export shipments showed a strong weekly increase. However, rising global stocks, higher Russian export projections, and ample Black Sea availability continued to outweigh demand flashes, keeping wheat rallies fragile and short-lived.

Vegetable oil markets added another layer of pressure to the oilseed complex. Palm oil prices firmed overnight, but longer-term forecasts point to lower average prices in 2026 as Indonesia delays expansion of its biodiesel mandate and regional supplies remain ample. These dynamics weighed on soyoil futures and indirectly pressured soybeans, even as U.S. biofuel demand remains supportive in the background.

Weather played a secondary but stabilizing role. Cold conditions across parts of North America remain largely mitigated by adequate snow cover protecting winter wheat, while dry conditions in Argentina persist but are partially offset by recent rainfall and sufficient soil moisture. Flood risks in central and southeastern Brazil remain on the radar, though current forecasts continue to favor overall strong crop development.

Export flows provided mixed signals late in the session. U.S. corn export inspections remained historically strong on a marketing-year basis, and soybean shipments exceeded last year’s pace for the week, but cumulative soybean shipments remain well behind seasonal averages. The market ultimately focused on forward supply rather than near-term logistics.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.10 1/4, down 7 3/4 cents. Despite strong export shipments and sizable international tenders, wheat futures were pressured by rising global stocks, higher Russian export projections, and competitive Black Sea supply.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn finished at $4.23 3/4, down 1 cent. Elevated global supply expectations and weak Brazilian domestic demand capped prices, even as U.S. export shipments continue to run well ahead of last year on a marketing-year basis.

Soybeans: Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans settled at $10.53, down 4 3/4 cents. Confirmation that China has completed its U.S. buying target, combined with accelerating Brazilian harvest progress and rising production estimates, shifted sentiment decisively bearish despite steady weekly export flows.