Weather is a primary early driver for wheat. Extreme cold is forecast across the Volga and Central districts in the Black Sea with adequate snow cover, while a significant arctic front is expected to sweep the U.S. Plains later this week, bringing snow and ice. Snow may offer protection in spots, but exposed areas raise winterkill risk, lending near-term support to SRW/HRW.

South America remains a split influence. Brazil is trending cool and wet into February, favorable for soybean filling, though localized heat risk in the Southeast bears watching. Argentina trends cooler and drier, which modestly elevates downside risk for corn and soybeans; Paraguay remains favorable. Net effect supports soybeans and corn on risk premium while capping runaway rallies given Brazil’s generally constructive outlook.

Export inspections are constructive across crops. For the week ending Jan. 15, the U.S. inspected 1.484 MMT of corn and 1.337 MMT of soybeans, with China accounting for 612k tons of the soybean total; wheat inspections also improved week-on-week. These flows underpin nearby demand and favor near-term spreads despite larger forward supplies.

Vegetable oils are providing cross-commodity support. Malaysian palm oil firmed overnight and is expected to trade range-bound in February; with Indonesia’s B50 narrative delayed, attention shifts to production, stocks, and export performance. Relative value keeps soyoil supported and feeds into soybean strength alongside firm soymeal.

Positioning adds fuel to the early rebound. Preliminary open interest showed increases in wheat and soy complex contracts and declines in corn on Tuesday, consistent with short-covering and rotation into oilseeds. That positioning sensitivity keeps the tape headline-reactive today.

Logistics and river conditions remain on the radar. Low Mississippi levels are not critical but a late-week winter storm could boost flows and ease drought pockets, offering modest relief for export programs. Traders will monitor barge notes as weather systems pass.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat is starting the day up 3 1/2 cents in SRW and up 3 1/4 cents in HRW, with HRS flat. Early firmness reflects expanding Plains cold risk and improved inspections, even as recent global tenders and stocks keep rallies measured.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn is up about 2 1/2 cents at the open. Support comes from strong inspections and Taiwan buying interest, while large Brazil export projections and ample global supply temper upside.

Soybeans: Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans are up about 10 1/2 cents early, with soymeal higher and soyoil firmer. Meal-led strength, solid inspections, and Brazil logistics keep near-term momentum positive despite expectations for heavy South American availability.