Grain markets ended Wednesday without a unified direction, reflecting competing drivers rather than a dominant macro theme. Winter wheat contracts finished lower, spring wheat held firm, corn drifted modestly weaker, and soybeans emerged as the clear outperformer. The session was marked by weather risk management, selective export headlines, and cross-commodity flows rather than broad fund-led moves.

Weather remained a central influence, particularly for wheat. Expanding cold risks across the U.S. Plains, with temperatures forecast 3–13°F below normal over the next 10 days, kept winterkill concerns elevated, especially in exposed SRW and HRW areas. While adequate snow cover in parts of the Plains and the Black Sea should limit widespread damage, the risk premium was enough to prevent sharper downside despite bearish global supply fundamentals.

In South America, conditions continued to diverge. Brazil’s outlook remains broadly favorable, with cool and wet weather supporting soybean filling and reinforcing expectations for a large crop, though localized heat risk in the Southeast remains under watch. Argentina, by contrast, continues to experience persistent dryness in key growing areas, with soil moisture declining across the southern regions, modestly increasing downside risk for corn and soybeans but not yet enough to materially alter production expectations.

Export activity provided mixed signals. USDA confirmed private corn export sales of 150,000 MT to Colombia and 195,000 MT to unknown destinations, alongside a Taiwanese purchase of 65,000 MT in a tender. However, with USDA’s weekly export sales report delayed until Friday due to the holiday, markets lacked a definitive demand benchmark, keeping follow-through buying limited.

Corn remained under pressure from supply-side narratives. Global production estimates remain elevated, and domestic cash prices softened further, signaling ongoing interior supply availability. With weekly EIA ethanol data delayed until Thursday and expectations for ethanol output to pull back from last week’s record, corn struggled to find fresh support despite export headlines.

Soybeans were the standout performer, supported by strength in soy oil and ongoing optimism around biofuel policy. Soy oil futures posted triple-digit gains, offsetting softer soymeal prices and weaker cash bean values. Additional support came from constructive U.S.–China trade commentary out of Davos, where officials signaled potential progress on non-sensitive trade areas, helping underpin sentiment in the oilseed complex.

Vegetable oil markets added a key cross-commodity driver. Palm oil prices firmed, but longer-term forecasts remain range-bound as Indonesia’s biodiesel expansion remains delayed and regional supply stays ample. Relative value continues to favor soy oil, supporting crush margins and helping soybeans hold gains even as South American supply expectations remain heavy.

Logistics and river conditions stayed in focus but were not disruptive. Mississippi River levels remain low but manageable, with upcoming winter storms expected to provide modest relief. Traders continue to monitor river conditions as a secondary factor influencing near-term export flows.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.07 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents. Winter wheat contracts were pressured by ample global supply and higher Russian export expectations, while expanding Plains cold risk and improving precipitation forecasts helped limit losses.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn finished at $4.21 3/4, down 2 cents. Elevated global supply projections, softer cash prices, and anticipation of lower ethanol output capped prices, despite confirmed private export sales and Taiwanese buying interest.

Soybeans: Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans settled at $10.64 1/2, up 11 1/2 cents. Strength in soy oil, supportive biofuel narratives, and constructive U.S.–China trade signals outweighed weaker cash markets and ongoing expectations for large South American supplies.