Grain markets are opening the session with selective strength rather than broad-based buying. Winter wheat is firmer across Chicago and Kansas City, spring wheat is softer, corn is near unchanged, and soybeans are modestly higher. The early tone reflects continued weather-driven risk management and positioning ahead of today’s USDA export sales release rather than fresh supply shocks.
Weather remains the primary driver for wheat. A strong arctic cold front is sweeping through the Central and Southern Plains, bringing extremely cold air, snow, and ice into key HRW areas. While snow cover may protect some acreage, insufficient coverage in exposed regions keeps winterkill risk elevated, sustaining a near-term weather premium for winter wheat.
Export demand expectations are also shaping wheat sentiment. USDA’s weekly export sales report, delayed by the Monday holiday, is due this morning, with trade estimates ranging from 150,000 to 450,000 MT of wheat bookings. Russia’s 2026 wheat crop estimate from SovEcon remains unchanged at 83.8 MMT, but the consultancy has warned that prolonged extreme cold could force downward revisions, adding optionality to the wheat outlook.
Corn is trading steady early after Thursday’s gains, supported by spillover strength from wheat and signs of short covering. Preliminary open interest fell on Thursday, suggesting some funds reduced short exposure. Cash markets remain firm, with the CmdtyView national average corn price holding at $3.87 3/4, pointing to steady interior demand as traders await confirmation from export sales data expected later today.
Ethanol fundamentals remain mixed but supportive at the margin. Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production easing from last week’s record, while stocks rose, but exports jumped sharply and refiner inputs increased. These factors are helping stabilize corn demand expectations even as global supply remains ample.
Soybeans are showing early gains as the market balances product spreads and export optimism. Open interest increased on Thursday, signaling fresh participation rather than pure short covering. Strength in soymeal is offsetting recent weakness in soy oil, while a confirmed private export sale and expectations for 1.5–3 MMT of weekly soybean sales are underpinning sentiment ahead of the USDA report.
South American fundamentals continue to cap upside while keeping volatility elevated. Brazil’s soybean crush estimate has been raised to a record 61 MMT, with production estimates ranging up to 179.5 MMT, reinforcing heavy forward supply. At the same time, logistics bottlenecks and weather-driven harvest delays suggest January shipments may underperform expectations, potentially shifting export flow pressure into February.
Weather in Argentina remains a growing watchpoint. Persistent dryness across the southern Pampas continues to erode soil moisture for corn and soybeans, while forecasts offer only limited relief. These conditions are not yet forcing major production cuts but keep downside yield risk alive, particularly for late-planted corn.
Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat is trading about 3 cents higher early after closing Thursday at $5.15 1/2, up 7 3/4 cents. Strength is driven by elevated Plains cold risk, winterkill concerns, and positioning ahead of export sales data.
Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn is unchanged at the start of the session after a Thursday close at $4.24, up 2 1/4 cents. Firm cash markets and strong ethanol exports are supportive, while large global supplies limit upside follow-through.
Soybeans: Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans are up about 2 1/2 cents early after settling Thursday at $10.64, down 1/2 cent. Support comes from export optimism and meal strength, partially offset by expectations for heavy South American availability.