According to a forecast by FAS USDA, Saudi Arabia's wheat imports in 2024/25 are expected to reach 4.25 million tons (compared to 4.16 million tons in 2023/24).
IKAR forecasts Russia's wheat production for 2024/25 to be between 81 and 85 million tons, leaning towards 85 million tons (compared to 81.8 million in 2024).
As of October 17, 2024, Ukraine harvested 9.428 million hectares of grain crops (85% of all sown areas, or 11.116 million), collecting 42.806 million tons of grain with an average yield of 4.54 tons/hectare.
As of 01.10.2024, 50.5% of Russia's sunseed areas have been harvested, yielding 8.8 million tons. The forecast for the total production is 17.1 million tons.
The Russian Grain Exporters Union has started publishing consensus indicative prices for the export of Russian wheat for October, November, and December.
On the market in Kazakhstan, there is a shortage of third-grade wheat, which is used by millers. A price decline is being observed for fourth- and fifth-grade wheat due to its large supply.
In their October report, USDA analysts raised their forecast for the global sunseed production to 50.7 million tons (+0.15 million tons compared to September and -5.4 million tons compared to 2023/24).
Starting from 16.10.2024, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 1,872 rubles/ton (up from 1,328.3 a week earlier). The export tax on barley will be 392.8 rubles/ton (up from 229.5), and the export tax on corn will be 2,827.2 rubles/ton (up from 2,696.7).
